宏观环境同样偏紧：日本央行自去年3月进入加息周期，但日圆仍跌破「心理关口」155日圆兑1美元，推高进口成本。日美利差扩大，日本政策利率仍仅0.5%，而美国联邦基金利率目标区间为3.5%至3.75%。借贷成本也抬升：长期最优惠贷款利率本月达2.45%，高于2016年7月0.9%的历史低位。
在群马县高崎市，咖喱店「Curry House Indo-ya」展示了微观压力。店铺创立于1983年；店主于2020年1月寻找接班人，2022年11月配对成功，新店主于次年5月接手。招牌焗芝士咖喱售1,080日圆（约7美元），小学生及以下免费；但接手时月营收约100万日圆，仅为其称盈亏平衡所需300万日圆的三分之一。调价、精简菜单、扩座与数字化后月均升至约240万日圆，仍低于300万日圆，最终在1月决定关店。
Japan’s cost inflation is squeezing small firms: rice prices at one point were nearly triple year on year, and an industrial can of curry chutney rose 20%. After an 11-year high in bankruptcies last year, Japan is on track to beat it this year; about 9,400 businesses closed in the first 11 months, up 2%. Roughly 8 in 10 bankruptcies involved debts under ¥100 million, and 9 in 10 were firms with fewer than 10 employees; in November the top driver was higher prices, compounded by aging-related labor shortages, expiring COVID-era loans, and rising wages.
Policy is tightening into a weak-currency backdrop: the Bank of Japan has been hiking since March last year, yet the yen weakened past ¥155 per dollar, lifting import costs. The rate gap remains wide—Japan’s policy rate is 0.5% versus the U.S. federal funds target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Borrowing costs are rising too: the long-term prime lending rate reached 2.45% this month, up from a 0.9% low in July 2016.
A curry shop in Takasaki shows the micro math. Founded in 1983, it sought a successor in January 2020, matched in November 2022, and transferred in May the next year. Its signature dish cost ¥1,080 (about $7) and was free for elementary-school kids, but monthly revenue was about ¥1 million—one-third of the roughly ¥3 million needed to be sustainable. Even after price hikes, menu cuts, more seats, longer hours, and digital ordering, it averaged about ¥2.4 million a month, still short of ¥3 million, and the owner chose to close in January.
