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数据分析显示伊朗战争早期阶段双方战术迅速调整。研究统计了1,615次独立攻击、2,875次导弹与无人机发射,以及208个战略地点的异常高温事件(如火灾)。伊朗最初的反击逐渐减弱,攻击次数减少,并从导弹转向无人机。战争初期伊朗无人机与导弹比例约为1:1,如今已升至约3:1。

尽管战术变化,伊朗攻击效果仍然有限。阿联酋报告称,截至3月10日共遭到262枚弹道导弹(其中260枚被拦截或落入海中)、1,475架无人机(其中1,385架被拦截)以及8枚巡航导弹(全部被拦截)。巴林则遭遇超过350次来袭武器,大部分被拦截。与此同时,伊朗近期攻击频率继续下降,显示其打击能力受到削弱。

美国与以色列也改变了攻击重点。相比战争初期,目前针对传统军事目标的打击数量减少到原来的约五分之二,更多转向防务工业设施、港口以及政权控制机构。利用NASA火灾监测系统数据观察到,对导弹与无人机工厂的密集轰炸阶段似乎已结束,攻击重点转向核设施、炼油厂和港口。战争同时严重扰乱贸易与交通,例如霍尔木兹海峡战前每天约50艘油气运输船通过,而战争开始后每天最多仅约5艘,且有3天完全没有船只通行。

Data analysis shows that both sides adjusted tactics early in the Iran war. The study examined 1,615 distinct attacks, 2,875 missile and drone launches, and abnormal high-temperature events at 208 strategic sites. Iran’s counterstrikes became less frequent and shifted from missiles toward drones. At the start of the conflict the ratio of drones to missiles was roughly one to one, but it has since risen to about three drones for every missile.

Despite the tactical shift, Iranian attacks have had limited success. The United Arab Emirates reports that by March 10 it had faced 262 ballistic missiles, of which 260 were intercepted or fell into the sea, 1,475 drones with 1,385 intercepted, and eight cruise missiles, all intercepted. Bahrain has experienced more than 350 incoming munitions, intercepting most of them. At the same time the overall pace of Iranian attacks has declined in recent days, suggesting reduced operational capacity.

The United States and Israel have also altered their targeting priorities. Compared with the start of the war, strikes on conventional military targets have fallen to about two-fifths of earlier levels, with increasing focus on defence-industry sites, ports and regime infrastructure. Satellite data from NASA’s fire-monitoring system indicate that intense bombardment of missile and drone factories has given way to attacks on nuclear facilities, oil refineries and ports. The conflict has also severely disrupted trade and transport: before the war roughly 50 oil and gas tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily, but since the fighting began no more than about five per day have done so, with three days seeing none at all.

2026-03-14 (Saturday) · 90de4a0d80d93c20328513cb6b72bbe42e8d616e

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