SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI正在为历史性的股市首秀做准备，这些发行可能会集体筹集约2000亿美元，并为美国股市市值增加高达4万亿美元。尽管SpaceX寻求以1.8万亿美元的估值筹集750亿美元，但由于受限的4%初始自由流通量，其在标准普尔500指数中的初始权重将仅为0.1%。

随着禁售期的届满，大量股票的涌入将逐步展开，例如SpaceX允许内部人士在第一份季度报告后出售其20%的股份。然而，历史数据表明，估值超过营收40倍的首次公开募股在三年内跑输市场58个百分点，而SpaceX的交易价格将超过其营收的90倍。

这些上市以及Alphabet发行850亿美元新股的计划，标志着从股票回购向大规模资金筹集的转变，以资助人工智能的发展。这一转变可能会引发市场消化不良，因为资金充裕转变为稀缺，如果人工智能相关股票表现不佳，可能会使投资者面临重大的低迷。

SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are preparing for historic stock market debuts that could collectively raise around $200 billion and add up to $4 trillion to the market value of US equities. Although SpaceX seeks to raise $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation, its initial S&P 500 weight will be just 0.1% due to a restricted 4% initial free float.

The massive influx of shares will unfold gradually as lock-up periods expire, such as SpaceX allowing insiders to sell 20% of their stakes after the first quarterly report. However, historical data shows that IPOs valued at over 40 times revenue underperformed the market by 58 percentage points over three years, while SpaceX is set to trade at over 90 times revenue.

These listings, combined with Alphabet’s plan to issue $85 billion in new shares, mark a transition from share buybacks to massive capital raises to fund artificial intelligence development. This shift could trigger market indigestion as capital abundance turns into scarcity, potentially exposing investors to significant downturns if AI-related stocks underperform.

Source: Can the stockmarket swallow SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI?

Subtitle: Watch out for indigestio

Dateline: June 4th 2026