最明显的证据体现在中国的价格数据：4月生产者价格较去年同期上升2.8%，创下自2022年7月以来最快增速；就在2月，工厂价格仍处于至少一代人以来最长的下跌期。消费者价格也略有改善，而自海湾冲突开始以来，人民币一直是表现最好的亚洲货币。与此同时，更广泛的经济活动走弱，信用增长在4月放缓，投资再次下滑，零售销售不及预期，工业生产以3年来最慢的速度增长，3月的年轻劳动力失业率小幅上升，汽车、家电和家具购买也出现回落。
文章认为，这场战争使中国进一步降息的可能性降低，尽管PBOC在2025年只放松过一次政策，而且经济学家已经下调了对更多刺激措施的预期。文章指出，如果更早再多降几次，或许能为抵御通缩提供更强的缓冲，但如今在需求疲弱、且出口稳健而房地产可能趋于稳定的双轨经济中，已没有太多理由再收紧。主要的保留意见是，通膨提振可能不会持续；不过文章最后认为，特朗普的行动仍然在中国经济仍需支持之际，意外地为习近平带来了一次有用的宏观经济红利。
China's fight with deflation has received an unexpected boost from the Iran war, which lifted prices in the world's second-largest economy and gave President Xi Jinping some relief after years of weak inflation. Beijing has been more comfortable than the US, Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia, where tighter policy is expected, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has signaled no rush to reverse course. The article frames this as a welcome but possibly temporary improvement in an otherwise bleak domestic outlook.
The clearest evidence is in China's price data: producer prices rose 2.8% in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace since July 2022, after factory prices had been in their longest decline in at least a generation as recently as February. Consumer prices also improved modestly, and the yuan has been the best-performing Asian currency since the Gulf conflict began. At the same time, broader activity weakened, with credit growth slowing in April, investment falling again, retail sales missing forecasts, industrial production rising at its slowest pace in 3 years, early-career unemployment edging up in March, and car, appliance, and furniture purchases retreating.
The piece argues that the war has made China less likely to cut rates further, even though the PBOC eased only once in 2025 and economists had already trimmed expectations for more stimulus. It suggests a few additional cuts earlier might have provided a stronger buffer against deflation, but now there is little reason to tighten given weak demand and a two-track economy in which exports are solid and real estate may be stabilizing. The main caveat is that the inflation lift may not last, yet the article concludes that Trump's actions have still delivered Xi a useful, if unintended, macroeconomic windfall at a time when China's economy still needs support.