最新的焦虑出现在竞争对手已缩小差距之际。Anthropic 最近的突破震动了市场，其 Claude 模型正在挑战 OpenAI，而且它可能以超过 900 billion 美元的估值融资，进而有机会超越 OpenAI 的估值。报导出炉后，软银自己的股价在东京一度下跌多达 9%，目前股价较 10 月高点约低 25%。然而，OpenAI 仍推升了软银的业绩：年度利润主要因持股价值上升而增至创纪录的 5 trillion 日圆（32 billion 美元），较前一年多出 4 倍以上。软银也在 2026 年 2 月透过一项 30 billion 美元的承诺扩大了其曝险，使总承诺投资超过 60 billion 美元，并将 OpenAI 估值推高至 730 billion 美元，是其 2024 年水准的 4 倍以上。
风险同时是财务上的，也是战略上的。标普（S&P）在 3 月将软银展望下调为负面，称对 OpenAI 的押注可能耗尽流动性并削弱信用品质；与此同时，信用违约掉期上升，公司也安排了创纪录的借款来为 AI 投资提供资金。软银已出售如 Nvidia 与 T-Mobile USA 持股等资产，削减其他机会，甚至在放款方犹豫后，缩减了一笔原本计划中的、以 OpenAI 作为抵押的 10 billion 美元保证金贷款。核心担忧在于治理：软银持有 OpenAI 超过 10% 的股份，但没有董事会席位；而像 Microsoft 和 Amazon 这样的竞争者与合作伙伴也都没有董事会代表。内部人士担心会重演 WeWork 超过 14 billion 美元的减记，但支持者认为，孙正义押注的是 AGI 世界观，而不只是单一新创公司，且一场 1 trillion 美元的 IPO 可能在 Alibaba 之后再带来一次里程碑式回报。
SoftBank Group Corp. has poured more than $60 billion into OpenAI, and Masayoshi Son has largely dismissed internal questions about what happens if the ChatGPT maker fails. The article says some SoftBank executives are increasingly uneasy that Son has concentrated too much capital and attention on one company, especially one facing business, reputational, and legal issues as it prepares for a possible IPO as early as 2026. Their concerns are based on interviews with around a dozen people familiar with the matter, and they worry the relationship between Son and Sam Altman is one-sided, risky, and driven by Son’s belief that Altman is leading the century’s most important technology shift.
The latest anxiety comes as rivals have narrowed the gap. Anthropic’s recent breakthroughs have shaken markets, its Claude model is challenging OpenAI, and it may raise funding at over $900 billion, potentially overtaking OpenAI’s valuation. SoftBank’s own stock fell as much as 9% in Tokyo after the report, and shares are about 25% below their October peak. Yet OpenAI still boosted SoftBank’s results: annual profit more than quadrupled to a record ¥5 trillion ($32 billion) largely on the rising value of the stake. SoftBank also expanded its exposure through a $30 billion commitment in February 2026, lifting total pledged investment to more than $60 billion and valuing OpenAI at $730 billion, more than 4 times its 2024 level.
The stakes are financial and strategic. S&P cut SoftBank’s outlook to negative in March, saying the OpenAI bet could drain liquidity and weaken credit quality, while credit default swaps rose and the company arranged record borrowing to fund AI investments. SoftBank has sold assets such as Nvidia and T-Mobile USA stakes, cut back on other opportunities, and even reduced a planned $10 billion margin loan backed by OpenAI after lender hesitation. A central worry is governance: SoftBank holds more than 10% of OpenAI but no board seat, while rivals and partners like Microsoft and Amazon also lack board representation. Insiders fear a repeat of WeWork’s more than $14 billion write-down, but supporters argue Son is betting on an AGI worldview, not just a single startup, and that a $1 trillion IPO could deliver a second landmark payoff after Alibaba.