目前，巴马科遭受长达两个月的燃油封锁。黑市上一升汽油价格高达5,000非洲法郎（合8.80美元），是官方价格的六倍多。城市燃油供应仅为封锁前水平的10%，运输费用翻倍，每户家庭每日可用电量从12小时降至6小时。近期至少有100辆油罐车遭袭击，企业关闭或裁员，部分西方国家已要求外交人员撤离。

尽管局势严峻，但分析认为萨赫勒地区最大的圣战组织（JNIM）约有6,000名武装分子，尚不具备占领并治理巴马科的实力。JNIM当前更侧重扩大收入来源，针对西部黄金矿区凯斯地区并加大勒索外国人的力度。封锁的目标主要是削弱民众对军政府的信心，推动更亲圣战分子的政权上台，但目前街头抗议和政变迹象有限，军政府得到了俄国雇佣兵非洲军团的支持。

尽管遭遇严重挑战，军政府近期通过非洲军团护送，在保护燃油运输方面取得了一些进展。此外还采取了封锁摄影、打击投机商等措施，并有传言称与圣战分子达成交换囚犯以换取部分缓解封锁的协议。随着JNIM武装能力包括无人机的增强，马里以及邻国军政府正陷入一场长期的消耗战，未来可能不得不与JNIM就包括伊斯兰治理等议题开启正式谈判。

Bamako is currently enduring a two-month-long fuel blockade. The price of petrol on the black market has surged to 5,000 CFA francs ($8.80) per litre—over six times the official price. The city’s fuel supplies have dwindled to just 10% of pre-blockade levels, transport costs have doubled, and average daily electricity per household has dropped from 12 to six hours. At least 100 fuel tankers have been attacked recently, businesses are shutting down or laying off workers, and some Western governments have withdrawn their diplomats.

Despite the severity of the situation, analysts believe the Sahel’s largest jihadist group (JNIM), numbering about 6,000 fighters, lacks the capacity to seize and govern Bamako. JNIM appears more focused on expanding its income sources, targeting the gold-rich Kayes region and increasing kidnappings of foreigners. The blockade’s main goal is to erode public confidence in the junta, pushing for a more jihadist-friendly government. However, there are no major street protests or signs of another coup, and the junta enjoys support from Russian mercenaries known as the Africa Corps.

Facing these challenges, the junta has had recent success in protecting fuel convoys aided by Africa Corps escorts. It has cracked down on fuel traders, banned photos at petrol stations, and reportedly negotiated with jihadists to exchange prisoners for a partial easing of the blockade. As JNIM grows more capable, now possessing drones and operating in at least six countries, Mali and neighboring juntas face a drawn-out war of attrition and will likely need to negotiate with JNIM on issues including Islamic governance.