中间价作为政策工具，限定在岸汇率每日在 ±2% 交易区间内波动。12 月中间价上调幅度创 15 个月最大，但仍显著低于彭博调查的市场均值预估，显示政策偏向「渐进升值」。这也为在岸人民币录得自 2020 年以来最大年度升幅铺路，同时试图抑制单边押注。
短线走势偏震荡：离岸人民币一度上涨 0.2% 后回吐，周五 15:57 报 6.9913；在岸亦在午后回吐。交易员称，主要中资行与自营盘在约 6.99 附近买美元、而客户偏卖美元；离岸流动性偏薄放大波动。技术面上，美元兑人民币相对强弱指标显示其自 2018 年以来最超卖；市场并预期 1 个月隐含波动率上升，可能回测 2024 年 9 月低点后再出现反转。
China is allowing measured yuan appreciation into year-end, balancing external pressure for a stronger currency against risks to exporters and speculative inflows. On Dec. 31, 2025 (GMT+8), the PBOC set the onshore daily fixing at its strongest since September 2024, after onshore trading pushed through the 7-per-dollar level; offshore markets crossed first.
The fixing anchors a ±2% daily trading band. December saw the biggest upward adjustment in about 15 months, yet the fixing still printed well below the Bloomberg-survey average estimate—signaling gradualism rather than a one-way rally. The stance supports the currency’s largest onshore annual gain since 2020 while trying to prevent overshooting, bubbles, and financial instability.
Market action looks choppy: the offshore yuan erased gains of up to 0.2% and was little changed at 6.9913 per dollar (15:57 local Friday), with onshore also giving back earlier advances. Traders cited state-bank dollar buying around 6.99 and thin offshore liquidity amplifying swings. Indicators show the dollar is most oversold versus the yuan since 2018, while one-month implied volatility points to wider moves and possible reversal after testing September 2024 lows.
