特朗普的对外军事表态节奏按美股时段运行：从周五下午4点开始到周一开盘铃响。3月21日（周六）他给伊朗48小时最后通牒，要求其重启霍尔木兹海峡，否则美国将打击其电厂，而伊朗则威胁对美军方的电力与海水淡化设施进行对等报复。 到周一，前后仅两天且在美国市场开盘前两小时，他又宣布“会谈取得良好进展”，把对伊朗电网袭击的最后期限再推迟5天至下一个周六。油价随之跌破每桶100美元，时隔近两周后初次回落，市场情绪随之缓和。
这将是过去一年第三轮美伊谈判，前两轮由史蒂夫·威克夫和阿拉加其主导；尽管特朗普声称与伊朗“高层”接触，但外交界称双方仍未公开面对面交涉，后者可能是议会议长穆罕默德·巴赫尔·卡利巴弗。伊朗不再接受威克夫，转而希望与副总统J.D. Vance对话，且协调国将从阿曼转向可能的巴基斯坦，因为卡塔尔公开表示不愿充当斡旋方。
美国的核心诉求仍是“要么接受重建”：在保留布什尔核电站前提下放弃大部分核计划、停止浓缩、移交超过400千克、浓缩度达60%的铀，并接受弹道导弹射程与数量限制以及停止支持真主党等地区代理。伊朗则要求关闭美军基地、战争赔款并掌控霍尔木兹海峡，这些均为美方难以接受之实质条款，核验与违规惩罚机制也使“含乌拉尔含量但不触碰核设施”的临时休战方案缺乏可信度。
Donald Trump's announcement cycle follows market hours, starting Friday at 4 p.m. and running to Monday's opening bell, with the March 21 Saturday ultimatum giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on power plants, while Iran threatened reciprocal strikes on U.S. power and desalination targets. Two days later, and two hours before U.S. markets opened, he reversed course, saying talks had been “very good and productive,” extending the Iran grid strike pause by 5 days to the next Saturday, which pushed oil back below $100 a barrel for the first time in almost two weeks.
It is the third negotiation track in a year after two prior rounds led by Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi, yet diplomats say there are still no direct U.S.-Iran talks despite Trump's claim of high-level contact, likely via speaker Muhammad Bagher Qalibaf. Iran rejects Witkoff and wants J.D. Vance instead, while the venue is shifting from discredited Oman to possible Pakistan after Qatar declined to mediate, and U.S. demands still include keeping Bushehr only if Iran cuts much of its nuclear program, halts enrichment, hands over more than 400kg of 60%-grade uranium, and accepts limits on missile range and quantity plus an end to proxy support.
Iran's own demands—U.S. base withdrawal, reparations, and Hormuz control—remain major non-starters, and enforcement design is central because a ceasefire leaving Iran’s uranium untouched is viewed as unacceptable by Gulf and Israeli actors. If talks fail, the options are either a political-victory narrative after a few more days of escalation, or continued coercion: weeks of additional airstrikes plus possible moves such as a raid on Kharg Island or new attacks on power plants, while Pentagon deployments rise with about 5,000 Marines expected around March 27, amphibious ships still two weeks from California, and thousands from the 82nd Airborne preparing to enter, which revives the familiar sequence of diplomacy-and-war planning seen a month earlier.
Source: Donald Trump says he is close to a deal with Ira
Subtitle: Almost no one believes that talks are getting anywhere
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 04:46 上午 | RIYADH