2026年3月23日，美国总统声称“由我和最高领袖”即可控制霍尔木兹海峡，但更关键的问题是，2月28日领导人更替后谁有权与美国谈判。过去几周被视为神权核心的领袖及其高级顾问（包括国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼）接连缺席，已让伊朗权力结构向伊斯兰革命卫队这支约190,000人的准军事组织倾斜，后者在国家与战争中均处于主导地位。
在3月24日，国家安全委员会把原哲学教授出身的阿里·拉里贾尼换为伊斯兰革命卫队官僚穆罕默德·祖尔加德尔，新的核心决策层与复活的国防会议正在设定总体战略并通过卡塔姆·阿勒安比亚总部统筹打击与指挥。美国谈判方面临的不确定性还来自军内分化：霍塞因·阿拉埃和“务实”派穆罕默德·巴格拉比亚可能接受谈判，但前卫队员、上一届大选拿到1,350万张选票的萨义德·贾利里仍可能成为强硬阻断点。
为防“断头式”打击，伊朗革命卫队据报分成31个子区，每区拥有武器库存（含导弹和无人机）与打击清单，通信中断时可自主行动；巴斯吉也被拆分为成千上万的移动小组，分布到清真寺、学校或桥下营地。由此既降低空袭压制效率，也提高地方部队“脱缰”演变为游击化长期抵抗的风险；库尔德武装跨境行动与民众起义预期同步下降，轰炸后民意由兴奋转为疲惫，政权把批评者定性为“敌对合作者”并施压，地方舆情对一个“比以往更强、更有权力”的体制转向惧怕。
Since March 23, President Trump suggested America could control the Strait of Hormuz “with me and the ayatollah,” but the key question remains who can actually authorize a deal with the United States after the leadership disruption after February 28. Since then, with the former supreme leader and other senior figures, including Ali Larijani, out of view or dead, authority has moved from a visible theocratic figurehead toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a 190,000-strong force now appearing to run both state and war machinery.
On March 24, the National Security Council replaced Ali Larijani, a former philosophy professor, with IRGC appointee Muhammad Zulghadr, and a military-dominated security command now sets strategy while a revived defense council and the Khatam al-Anbiya HQ select targets and direct strikes. Negotiations are further complicated by factional divisions: reformist voices such as Hossein Alaei and pragmatist Qalibaf may tolerate talks, but hardliner Saeed Jalili—who received 13.5 million votes in the last presidential election—could still block a settlement.
To absorb decapitation pressure, the IRGC was reportedly split into 31 sub-districts, each with its own stockpiles of missiles and drones and authority to act if communications fail. The Basij was also dispersed into tens of thousands of small cells, creating a persistent guerrilla-continuity risk, while Kurdish cross-border escalation and mass uprising momentum have both faded as bombing and the regime’s framing of resistance have made a stronger security state more acceptable and fear-provoking.
Source: The Revolutionary Guards are taking over Ira
Subtitle: They now appear to run both the state and the war
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 04:45 上午