私人信用市场的名义违约率仍低，但风险指标正快速恶化。S&P数据显示，私人信用垃圾级借款人的12个月违约率已自2022年8–9月的不足0.5%升至今夏的1.3%，虽低于2020年疫情高峰的2.5%及2009年金融危机约15%，但“选择性违约”将实际压力推升更高。若计入展期与PIK（将利息资本化）等结构性缓冲，违约相关比率升至4.6%，虽低于2023年3月的近6%和2020年8%的水平，但趋势不利。Goldman Sachs估计约15%借款人经营利润已不足以覆盖利息成本，利率下调也只能“有限缓解”。
评级端反映的疲弱更明显。KBRA称过去七个季度降级数持续超过升级数，使得处于ccc-minus（违约前最后一级）的公司数量创纪录，约有140亿美元债务濒临违约。这些企业面临收入下滑、杠杆攀升、现金缺口及大规模到期压力，若经济走软或关税等政策压缩利润率，将进一步推高再融资难度与违约风险。KBRA预期2026年违约将上升，零售与化工行业尤为脆弱。
压力在借款时间点上分化明显。早年在低利率时期融资、或在银行退出杠杆贷款市场时锁定较低成本债务的公司状况较稳定，并已在过去两年银行重返市场后成功再融资。但在2021–2022年利率暴涨前夕举债的企业承压最重，偿付结构已显失衡，预计更多主体将在明年“熬不过去”。这意味着私人信用“是否失控”的争议将从情绪层面转向真实的违约数据。
Private credit’s headline default rate remains low, but underlying stress indicators are deteriorating rapidly. S&P reports that 12-month defaults among junk-rated private borrowers have climbed from under 0.5% in August–September 2022 to 1.3% this summer—still below the 2.5% peak in 2020 and the roughly 15% seen in 2009, but masking deeper strain. When “selective defaults” such as maturity extensions and PIK interest are included, the effective distress rate rises to 4.6%, below the near-6% level of March 2023 and the 8% in mid-2020, yet trending negatively. Goldman Sachs estimates about 15% of private credit borrowers now lack sufficient operating profit to cover interest, and rate cuts will offer only “limited relief.”
Ratings data reveal more systemic weakening. KBRA notes seven consecutive quarters of downgrades exceeding upgrades, leaving a record population of borrowers at ccc-minus—the final step before default—representing about USD 14 billion of debt on the brink. These firms face falling revenue, rising leverage, cash shortfalls, and large upcoming maturities; any economic slowdown or margin pressure from policies such as tariffs would further elevate refinancing risk. KBRA expects defaults to rise in 2026, with retail and chemicals particularly vulnerable.
Stress is heavily dependent on the vintage of debt. Companies that borrowed earlier in the low-rate era, or during the temporary closure of traditional leveraged-loan markets, are relatively stable and have refinanced as banks returned over the past two years. Those that borrowed in 2021–2022 just before the rate spike are under severe strain, with repayment structures increasingly untenable. Many of them are likely to fail next year, shifting private-credit concerns from speculative fear to observable defaults.