本月，鲁比奥和科尔比在去年的慕尼黑更强硬表态之后试图安抚欧洲，但在特朗普1月提出格陵兰主张、且仅在经济、政治与市场压力下暂时后退后，信心仍然偏低。

美国提出的条件是：如果欧洲为常规威慑出资，美国就保留核保护伞；但官员估计，北约大约需要10年才能建立在几乎没有或完全没有美国支持下作战的部队，这暴露出在推动分担负担之际的近期依赖。

战略不一致正在上升：华盛顿一边要求更强硬的威慑并减少俄罗斯能源，一边支持对普京更友好的匈牙利和斯洛伐克领导人；分析人士警告，“核与常规分割”并不稳定，因为任何北约与俄罗斯的导弹交火都很可能触发美国关键利益层面的介入。

This month, Rubio and Colby tried to reassure Europe after harsher messaging at Munich last year, but confidence remains low after Trump’s January claim on Greenland and only temporary retreat under economic, political, and market pressure.

The US offer is conditional: keep the nuclear umbrella if Europe funds conventional deterrence; yet officials estimate NATO would need about ten years to field forces able to fight with little or no US support, exposing near-term dependence despite the burden-sharing push.

Strategic inconsistency is rising: Washington demands tougher deterrence and less Russian energy while backing Hungary and Slovakia leaders friendlier to Putin; analysts warn the “nuclear-versus-conventional split” is unstable because any NATO-Russia missile exchange would likely trigger US involvement at the level of vital interests.

Source: Donald Trump’s envoys failed to reassure Europe

Subtitle: A gathering of world leaders in Munich shows how trust has collapsed

Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:18 上午