12月26日，以色列成为第一个承认索马里兰为主权国家的国家；索马里兰是一个脱离的共和国，1991年宣布自索马里独立。此次承认凸显了三十多年未获承认的自治，以及与索马里内战冲突相比显著的稳定性差距，尽管哈格萨的庆祝活动违逆了穆斯林世界对以色列象征更广泛的敌意。
以色列的单边举动不同于纳米比亚、厄立特里亚和南苏丹那些得到联合国与非盟背书的先例，可能在强族群对立与弱国家并存的环境中鼓励破坏稳定的边界变更。索马里兰押注后续承认——尤其来自美国；过去一年里美国官员进行了数次高调访问，并长期觊觎在贝尔贝拉附近设立基地，而阿联酋已在该地进行大量商业与军事投资——但非盟、欧盟、中国以及四个地区重量级国家（埃及、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其）已批评或谴责此举。
安全消息来源称，以色列可能已经把贝尔贝拉用于监视并作为潜在行动枢纽，并得到阿联酋的秘密支持，这可能指向打击伊朗支持的胡塞武装；后者控制也门大部分地区，并已迫使大多数航运公司避开红海。与此同时在索马里，青年党警告以色列是“伊斯兰社会最大的敌人”；在有关青年党与胡塞结盟以及对索马里兰发出威胁的报道之下，分析人士预计非洲之角的竞争将进一步加剧。
On December 26 Israel became the first country to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state, a breakaway republic that declared independence from Somalia in 1991. The recognition spotlights more than three decades of unrecognised self-rule and a marked stability gap versus Somalia’s civil conflict, even as celebrations in Hargeisa defy broader Muslim-world hostility to Israeli symbols.
Israel’s unilateral step, unlike the UN- and African Union-backed precedents of Namibia, Eritrea, and South Sudan, risks encouraging destabilising border changes across weak states with strong ethnic antagonisms. Somaliland is betting on follow-on recognitions—especially from America, where officials made several high-profile visits in the past year and have long eyed a base near Berbera, alongside heavy UAE commercial and military investment—yet the AU, EU, China, and four regional heavyweights (Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) have criticised or condemned the move.
Security sources claim Israel may already use Berbera for surveillance and as a potential operations hub with covert UAE support, potentially against Iranian-backed Houthis who control much of Yemen and have driven most shipping lines from the Red Sea. In Somalia, al-Shabab warns Israel is the “biggest enemy” and, amid reports of an al-Shabab–Houthi alignment and threats against Somaliland, analysts predict intensifying rivalries across the Horn of Africa.
Source: Israel recognises Somaliland
Subtitle: That may exacerbate regional rivalries
Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 07:43 上午 | NAIROBI