12月2日，阿联酋支持的南方过渡委员会（STC）在东南部发动闪电攻势，夺取沙特支持派系的地盘，如今控制了原南也门的八个省份（1967—1990年曾为独立国家），使这场持续十余年的战争从“对胡塞”转向“联盟内斗”。其势力范围还覆盖也门大部分油气资源；该国曾日产原油超过10万桶。
裂痕在2022年进一步制度化：沙特罢黜总统并设立八人总统领导委员会（PLC），把主张统一的拉沙德·阿里米与主张分裂的STC领导人艾德鲁斯·祖拜迪并置。沙特在战争期间遭胡塞向城市发射数百枚导弹与无人机而急求停火，而阿联酋更强调红海与非洲之角的影响力，尽管其也在2022年阿布扎比无人机袭击中死亡3人；与此同时，苏丹自2023年陷入内战、围绕RSF制裁的分歧与社媒互呛使矛盾外溢。
12月下旬出现以日期为节点的升级：12月26日沙特战机在哈德拉毛一处STC军营附近空袭但无人死亡，12月30日又以两艘自阿联酋而来的船只疑似运武为由轰炸东部港口穆卡拉，而同日阿联酋称将从也门撤军。若出现更大自治、分区撤离或以2020年《亚伯拉罕协议》为筹码的政治交易，其方向仍将延续一个十年趋势：决定也门未来的关键变量主要来自外部支持者而非也门人。
On December 2, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched a lightning offensive in the south-east, seizing Saudi-backed positions and now controlling the eight governorates of former South Yemen (independent from 1967 to 1990), shifting a war of more than a decade from “against the Houthis” to intra-coalition conflict. Its fief also covers most of Yemen’s oil and gas resources; the country once exported over 100,000 barrels of crude a day.
The split was further institutionalized in 2022, when Saudi Arabia sacked the president and created an eight-man Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) pairing unity-minded Rashad al-Alimi with STC leader Aiderus al-Zubaidi, who favors partition. Saudi urgency is shaped by the hundreds of Houthi missiles and drones fired at its cities, while the UAE pursues Red Sea and Horn of Africa influence despite suffering a 2022 Abu Dhabi drone attack that killed three; spillover tensions include Sudan’s civil war since 2023, disputes over RSF sanctions, and weeks of social-media sparring.
Late-December escalation followed a tight timeline: on December 26 a Saudi jet struck near an STC-held camp in Hadhramaut with no deaths, and on December 30 Saudi Arabia bombed Mukalla after alleging an arms delivery to the STC on two ships from the UAE, as the UAE the same day said it would withdraw its troops from Yemen. Whether the outcome is greater autonomy, partial STC pullbacks, or a political deal leveraging the 2020 Abraham accords, the trajectory reinforces a decade-long trend that Yemen’s future is largely set by foreign backers rather than Yemenis.
Source: A lightning advance by separatists has reshaped Yemen’s civil war
Subtitle: It has also deepened the rift between the Saudis and Emiratis
Dateline: 12月 31, 2025 02:04 上午 | DUBAI