在互联网泡沫时期，纳斯达克指数在1995年至2000年3月峰值之间上涨了将近1,100%，随后在接下来的两年半里下跌了逾80%，同时巴菲特的投资工具每年平均落后该指数15个百分点，而乔治·索罗斯过早做空亏损7亿美元并引发数十亿美元赎回。即便是瑞·达里奥、彼得·林奇和霍华德·马克斯这样的顶级投资者，也证明了识别泡沫远比把握其破裂时点容易。
今天，以人工智能为重点的市场呈现出类似拉伸的指标：按过去十年实际盈利计价，标普500指数的估值仅在1999—2000年更高过一次，而按销售额计，它比当年繁荣顶点时还要贵逾60%。像高席勒CAPE市盈率这样的估值指标可以解释长期十年平均回报偏低，却对一年期走势几乎没有相关性，相比之下，比特币、狗狗币、大麻、SPAC、GameStop和ARKK等投机热点在谷歌搜索激增时往往正好见顶，此后12个月价格普遍大幅下跌。
最新数据表明，晚周期的熟悉震荡正在出现：对“AI股票”的搜索在8月中旬见顶后急剧回落，英伟达和费城半导体指数各自下跌约13%，AIQ ETF回落12%，而比特币自10月初以来跌幅超过25%。然而历史显示，在截至2000年3月的五年里，纳斯达克经历了逾十次超过10%的调整，最终仍上涨近12倍，被动持有者获得厚报，而像朱利安·罗伯逊乃至当下的迈克尔·伯里这类精确择时者却可能承担职业生涯终结的风险。
The system doesn’t clearly specify requirements, but the user is looking for semantic equivalence. I can start by drafting in English and then create a faithful Chinese version. Getting a "word for word" translation might not work, so I’ll focus on key numbers, ratios, and trends. My plan is to write English paragraphs around 70 words each, which means I could draft three paragraphs totaling 210 words, well under the 288-word limit.
I need to cover several key points regarding market trends. Between 1995 and 2000, the NASDAQ soared about 1100% before dropping over 80% in 2.5 years. Buffett underperformed the NASDAQ, and Soros lost $700 million. The S&P 500's valuations relative to 10-year real earnings were only high in 1999-2000. Currently, AI-related stocks are experiencing volatility, with searches for "AI stocks" peaking mid-August. This analysis reflects patterns in asset behavior, including major corrections in the tech market.
Today, Burry shorted Palantir and Nvidia before closing his fund in late October—this could signal something significant. I want to focus on key stats and trends like high valuations and the inverse relationship of CAPE to returns over ten years. I plan to draft three paragraphs: one about the dotcom bubble and timing lessons, another on valuations and CAPE alongside Google search patterns, and a third on current AI and crypto corrections, linking them to historical NASDAQ corrections and Burry’s actions. Each paragraph will have 1-2 sentences, combined for clarity.
Source: How to spot a bubble bursting
Subtitle: Forget valuations. Look out for search-engine hits and fund managers getting fired
Dateline: 12月 04, 2025 04:50 上午