房地产拖累投资：今年前11个月固定资产投资下降2.6%，较1-10月的-1.7%进一步恶化；11月北京、上海等大城市的新房与二手房价格月跌幅扩大，显示自2021年年中以来的下行仍在延续，尽管已下调房贷利率、放松限购、提供税收减免并出资协助房企完工，同时中国万科等房企债务压力升高。
整体景气亦降温：11月工业增加值增速由10月的4.9%小幅降至4.8%。分析指向财政支出回落导致的广泛走弱，并警告「两极分化」格局可能转向更全面的内需放缓；同时出口仍被视为支撑增长的权宜之计，因今年贸易顺差已超过1兆美元，但失衡加剧外部摩擦，法国总统马克宏称若未改善，欧盟可能在未来数月采取措施，且2026年增长或略弱于2025年。
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year over year in November, down from 2.9% in October, marking a sixth straight month of deceleration and the weakest reading since December 2022, signaling fragile household confidence amid the property slump.
Property weakness is dragging on investment: fixed-asset investment fell 2.6% in the first 11 months of the year, worsening from a 1.7% drop in January–October; monthly price declines for new and existing homes in major cities widened in November, extending a downturn that has lasted since mid-2021 despite mortgage-rate cuts, eased purchase curbs, tax relief, and funding to finish stalled projects, while China Vanke faces a debt squeeze.
Broader activity also cooled, with industrial output growth easing to 4.8% from 4.9%. Analysts point to a pullback in fiscal spending and warn the “bifurcated” economy may be giving way to a wider domestic-demand slowdown; exports remain a stopgap as the trade surplus has already exceeded $1 trillion this year, but the imbalance is fueling friction, with France’s President Emmanuel Macron warning the EU may take measures in the coming months and 2026 growth likely slightly weaker than 2025.
