数字面上，关税宣布后（2025年4月）彭博经济学家调查对「未来一年衰退」的机率从就职日前后约20%跳升到40%。展望2026，穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi称「大概率能熬过」但容错极低；穆迪估2026年衰退风险约42%，而他认为健康景气下约15%。彭博受访分析师预估GDP成长2%、衰退机率30%；另有估计把2026下行机率放在33%。
结构上有四根支柱：就业、通膨、消费、AI。就业呈现「失业与裁员接近历史低点」但「招聘降至数十年低点」的异常组合，若转向裁员或回升招聘都可能牵动整体。消费约占GDP的70%，但支出愈来愈集中：最富裕10%几乎贡献全美近一半消费，使经济对资产价格回档更敏感。市场层面，「七巨头」已占标普500总市值逾三分之一，AI成为成长引擎也带来集中度风险；若AI前景动摇，四支柱任一失衡都可能把经济推向衰退。
The article argues that the US economy has repeatedly dodged downturns even as classic recession signals flashed: the Treasury yield curve inverted in 2022 and the Sahm rule was triggered in 2024. By December 15, 2025, it contends that recession risk for 2026 has receded, largely because an AI-led investment boom and strong corporate profits have kept growth resilient despite weak-looking pockets of the economy.
The key probability swings are sharp. After “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, Bloomberg’s economist survey put the odds of a recession in the coming year at 40%, up from 20% around Inauguration Day. Looking into 2026, Moody’s Analytics puts recession risk at about 42%, versus roughly 15% in a “healthy” economy, according to chief economist Mark Zandi. Other forecasts are milder: Bloomberg-surveyed analysts project 2% GDP growth with a 30% recession chance, while another estimate places 2026 downturn odds near 33%.
The outlook rests on four pillars—labor, inflation, consumers, and AI—where any one failure could tip the balance. Labor is unusually stagnant: unemployment and layoffs are near historic lows while hiring is at a decades-low level, leaving workers “stuck” and making the next shift (more hiring or more layoffs) decisive. Consumers drive about 70% of GDP, but spending is increasingly concentrated: the richest 10% generate nearly half of all US consumption, raising vulnerability to a market selloff. Meanwhile, AI is both engine and risk: the “Magnificent 7” now exceed one-third of S&P 500 value, so a reversal in AI expectations could propagate quickly through markets and the real economy.
