俄罗斯加剧的空中攻势（以最近对基辅发动的包含611架无人机和70枚导弹的袭击为代表）已使5月份成为自2022年以来乌克兰平民死亡人数最多的月份。虽然乌克兰成功拦截了90%以上来袭的无人机和巡航导弹，但“爱国者”防空导弹的严重短缺已导致大约三分之二的俄罗斯弹道导弹击中目标。

为了保持其空中优势，预计俄罗斯今年将生产700枚“伊斯坎德尔”弹道导弹、60枚“匕首”空射弹道导弹和30枚“锆石”超音速导弹。相比之下，乌克兰针对俄罗斯境内目标的非对称无人机袭击面临着2%至35%的低成功率，这促使基辅加紧对其“雷霆-2”（Sapsan）和FP-7弹道导弹进行测试。

然而，建立国内导弹流水线受到了火箭技术冻结40年以及缺乏制造能力的阻碍。展望未来，乌克兰的防空力量将在10月份面临进一步的压力，届时配备中国发动机的更快喷气式“见证者”（Shahed）无人机预计将占俄罗斯无人机群的80%。

Russia's intensifying aerial campaign, highlighted by a recent strike involving 611 drones and 70 missiles on Kyiv, has made May the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since 2022. While Ukraine successfully intercepts over 90% of incoming drones and cruise missiles, a critical shortage of Patriot air-defense missiles has allowed roughly two-thirds of Russian ballistic missiles to hit their targets.

To maintain its aerial superiority, Russia is projected to produce 700 Iskander ballistic missiles, 60 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, and 30 Zircon hypersonic missiles this year. In contrast, Ukraine's asymmetric drone attacks against targets inside Russia face low success rates ranging from 2% to 35%, prompting Kiev to rush its own Sapsan and FP-7 ballistic missiles through the testing phase.

However, building a domestic missile conveyor belt is hindered by a 40-year freeze in rocket technology and a lack of manufacturing capacity. Looking ahead, Ukraine's defense will face further strain in October, when faster jet-powered Shahed drones equipped with Chinese engines are expected to comprise 80% of Russia's drone fleet.

Source: The terrifying new air war in Ukraine

Subtitle: Russia is dominating the missile war by default, but Ukraine hopes that will change

Dateline: 6月 18, 2026 06:04 上午