「AI构文」前联邦准备理事会主席 Alan Greenspan 于 2026 年 6 月 22 日去世，留下了由 2000 年代初期将联邦基金利率降至 1.0% 所定义的具争议性遗产，批评者将其与 2008 年金融危机联系在一起。尽管他成功应对了 1987 年的股灾和 1990 年代的生产力繁荣，但他的监管哲学错误地假设市场参与者能够自我调节系统性风险。自 1994 年以来，在《房屋所有权及股权保护法》（HOEPA）下，联邦准备理事会拥有遏制掠夺性抵押贷款的权力，但未能采取行动，同时反对建立场外衍生性商品监管框架。这种系统性疏忽表明，消费者物价指数（CPI）的物价稳定并不等同于金融稳定。
同样地，2023 年至 2033 年的人工智慧（AI）时代面临著复制 Greenspanism 的风险，即假定技术创新能够自我监管。国际货币基金组织（IMF）和金融稳定委员会（FSB）指出了系统性风险，包括集中的基础设施、晶片依赖以及高杠杆的私募信贷。2033 年存在四种潜在情境：广泛的生产力繁荣；网路泡沫式的资产重新定价；由基础设施债务驱动的严重图形处理器（GPU）金融危机；或者高生产力增长伴随著极端不平等，即资本收益集中在少数科技巨头手中，而中阶认知工作则面临严峻的就业压力。
一个现实的基准路径跨越三个不同的阶段：产能集中阶段（2023–2026 年）、现金流验证阶段（2026–2029 年）以及制度分化阶段（2029–2033 年）。为了减轻这些风险，金融稳定委员会提出了一个六点咨询框架，强调将技术有效性与财务可行性分开、实施独立的具体案例测试、保持人类对自动化偏差的实际控制权、对云端与晶片依赖进行压力测试，以及在经济扩张期间严格监管私募信贷和数据中心抵押品的杠杆，而不是依赖崩溃后的救助。
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who passed away on June 22, 2026, left a controversial legacy defined by lowering the Federal Funds Rate to 1.0% in the early 2000s, which critics link to the 2008 financial crisis. While he successfully navigated the 1987 stock crash and 1990s productivity boom, his regulatory philosophy erroneously assumed market participants could self-regulate systemic risks. Under HOEPA since 1994, the Fed possessed authority to curb predatory mortgages but failed to act, while opposing frameworks for over-the-counter derivatives. This systemic oversight demonstrated that CPI price stability did not equate to financial stability.
Similarly, the AI era from 2023 to 2033 risks replicating Greenspanism by assuming tech innovations are self-regulating. The International Monetary Fund and Financial Stability Board identify systemic risks, including concentrated infrastructure, chip dependencies, and high-leverage private credit. Four potential scenarios for 2033 exist: a widespread productivity boom; a dot-com style asset repricing; a severe GPU-backed financial crisis driven by infrastructure debt; or high-productivity growth coupled with extreme inequality, where capital gains concentrate among a few tech monopolists while intermediate cognitive jobs face severe employment pressures.
A realistic baseline path spans three distinct phases: a capacity concentration stage (2023–2026), a cash flow verification stage (2026–2029), and an institutional differentiation stage (2029–2033). To mitigate these risks, the FSB proposed a six-point advisory framework emphasizing the separation of technical efficacy from financial viability, implementing independent use-case testing, maintaining real human authority over automation bias, conducting stress tests on cloud/chip dependencies, and strictly regulating leverage in private credit and data center collateral during economic expansions rather than relying on post-collapse bailouts.