2025年4月8日宣布的伊朗停火在一开始就伴随了持续暴力：以色列在黎巴嫩加大了对真主党战斗力量的轰炸，伊朗向海湾国家发射了无人机和导弹，双方均称遭到代理人袭击，伊朗也尚未恢复霍尔木兹海峡正常航运，而特朗普总统已命令美国海军实施海上封锁。对许多观察者而言，这更像是第一周内各方试探限度、进行受控升级，而不是真正停火。
《经济学人》基于ACLED对2020年后中东及周边九项停火前后60天期间12,333起暴力事件的分析显示，停火协议确实降低了冲突，但并未终止冲突：停火后30天内致命事件平均下降了81%，相比停火前30天。2020年亚美尼亚-阿塞拜疆停火是最成功的例外——除2023年的短暂再战外，多为零星暴力；而2023年晚期和2025年1月至3月的以哈停火很快回到停火前强度，大多数案例介于两端之间。
在更广泛记录中，和平停火项目统计了1989—2020年的2,203项宣告停火：约一半在未重返战争或仍持续有效的情况下结束，而约三分之一失败；而在中东已知终点的360项停火中，失败的比例超过一半。加沙和这次海湾危机表明，低强度、以对等报复为“阈值”的骚乱可持续存在以争取谈判筹码；在美伊直接交战的背景下缺乏中立第三方监督，使谈判面临重演1989—2020年后续停火常见格局——短期缓和有助于对话，但无法保证持久和平。
The Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 began with immediate violence: Israel intensified strikes on Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, Iran launched drones and missiles at Gulf countries, both sides reported proxy attacks, and Iran has still not restored normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while Trump has ordered a U.S. naval blockade. For many observers, this looks like controlled escalation and limit-testing in the first week rather than a full truce.
In an ACLED-based analysis of 12,333 violent events across 60 days around nine post-2020 Middle East and nearby ceasefires, armistices lowered conflict but did not eliminate it: fatal events fell by an average of 81% in the 30 days after a ceasefire compared with the prior 30 days. The 2020 Armenia–Azerbaijan truce was the strongest outlier—mostly sporadic violence except for a brief relapse in 2023—while the Israel-Hamas truces in late 2023 and Jan–Mar 2025 quickly returned to pre-ceasefire intensity, with most cases in between these extremes.
More broadly, the Ceasefire Project recorded 2,203 declared truces from 1989–2020: about half ended without renewed war or remained in effect, and about one-third failed, while more than half of 360 Middle Eastern truces with known endpoints failed. Gaza and this Gulf war pattern show that low-level, tit-for-tat “threshold” violence can persist as bargaining leverage; with no neutral third-party monitoring in a direct U.S.-Iran war, talks may repeat the familiar 1989–2020 pattern where short-term pauses can help but do not secure durable peace.
Source: The game theory behind violating ceasefires
Subtitle: Truces like the one in the Gulf get broken all the time. But they still work
Dateline: 4月 16, 2026 04:36 上午