这篇文章把全球置于核扩散风险的临界点上，即使对任何先发竞逐者存在严厉制裁和军事打击的高昂代价。国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西指出，尽管现行核不扩散机制未能阻止若干国家，已有191个国家加入的《不扩散条约》仍是当前危险世界“最后的稳定点”之一，伊朗“几乎武器级”浓缩铀、拒绝全面核查和持续“模糊”政策最终引发其灾难性结局。
格罗西称伊朗周边及德国、日本、波兰、韩国等美国盟友中，围绕核武议题的讨论确已在秘密进行。另一位欧洲外交官补充说，2022年俄乌战争及特朗普复任后使这种焦虑上升，部分欧洲官员甚至认为“若乌克兰有核武或可避免被攻”，并列举从北欧到印尼、土耳其、阿联酋的“十余个”国家认真研究核选项，而在其中仍“仍在位”的只有朝鲜的金正恩。
文章承认像朝鲜那样以核武求生存可解释，但认为中东复杂地缘与政治结构使“烧毁所有桥梁”并不如想象可行；伊朗的核能力无法靠纯粹空袭抹除，“你无法把学到的东西反向遗忘”，谈判被认为是唯一现实出口。与此同时，海湾战争拖延使伊朗寻核动机上升，计划可能转向更小、更秘密且工艺更粗糙，但哪怕一次简单核爆也会逼近邻国，文中以“多米诺骨牌摇晃，下一次推动就可能整体倒塌”总结扩散风险趋势。
The article frames the world as being on the brink of a nuclear proliferation cascade despite huge costs for the first state to break ranks, including sanctions and strikes, and while Iran’s case shows ambiguity and half-compliance can still end badly. Grossi, the IAEA director-general, says the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—signed by 191 states—is still one of the last pillars of stability, even though it has failed to prevent several states from acquiring nuclear status.
Grossi says internal discussions are already occurring among Iran’s neighbors and U.S. allies such as Germany, Japan, Poland, and South Korea, while a European diplomat says confidence in U.S. extended deterrence weakened after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and political shifts in Washington. He cites a dozen countries from Northern Europe to Indonesia, Turkey, and the UAE examining nuclear options, and adds that among current regional examples, only Kim Jong Un remains in power.
Grossi views North Korea as a limited case where nuclear weapons as defense may be “valid,” but argues Middle East politics and geography make proliferation there especially destabilizing and not a simple bargaining tool. He rejects total military elimination as a solution because nuclear knowledge persists even if facilities are destroyed; only negotiation is viable, yet ongoing Gulf conflict is still pushing Iran toward smaller, more covert, potentially less sophisticated programs whose mere demonstration risk could still trigger further regional domino effects.
Source: If it starts, a nuclear-arms race will be unstoppable
Subtitle: A sobering interview with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency
Dateline: 4月 16, 2026 04:15 上午