公司内部把交易当作“自用反馈”。Windborne首席执行官John Dean表示，交易使官方站点数据中的噪声更明显，例如阳光加热导致传感器读数偏高，从而促使其改进了训练数据预处理。Jua联合创始人兼CEO Marvin Gabler建立了一个由亲友出资的投资载体，在Polymarket上交易最高气温合约；他称相对收益率较高，但市场成交量与流动性仍不足以支撑大规模基金。盈利能力并非只属于专业气象人士：德国23岁法学院学生Hans323是天气市场长期高盈利者之一，而1-800-LIQUIDITY（Atte）自十月以来也赚得约3.3万美元。
Interactive Brokers气候分析主管Patrick Brown认为预测市场可能优于传统天气预报，他指出其隐含预报击败美国国家气象局，原因在于准确可得正向奖金、失误会被处罚。反对者持不同意见。尽管盈利可观，Atte仍称许多投注在社会层面上“完全没用”，而近期也出现操纵与伦理风险，如他人篡改战区地图、向记者施压影响报道。科研型市场正作为替代方案展开：Mark Roulston的CRUCIAL项目在Winton与Scor Foundation支持下采用由赞助方负担资金池的机制，用于聚合研究者判断并服务再保险；其运行了大西洋、太平洋气旋与4个实时厄尔尼诺市场。天气衍生品自1990年代即有，但在保险领域仍受低流动性与参数型保险成本制约；在近11年均创历史高温、升温可能加速背景下，Jim Huang认为更广泛参与可改善天气风险定价。
In 2024, 24-year-old weather enthusiast Howard Qin wagered about $200 on NYC snowfall thresholds (including more than 2 inches, about 5.1 cm) on Kalshi and sold before a concert for a 57% gain, earning $327.79. Two years later he still trades casually, while activity has surged: Kalshi’s January New York snowstorm market topped $6 million in volume, one of the platform’s largest weather contracts. Growth reflects a wider mix of users—casual bettors, weather experts, and AI weather-tech firms like Windborne and Jua using trading outcomes to stress-test forecast models.
Companies used this as dogfooding. Windborne CEO John Dean said market signals exposed noisy official-station data, such as sun-heated sensor spikes, and prompted data-preprocessing fixes. Marvin Gabler at Jua set up a friends-and-family vehicle to trade max-temperature contracts on Polymarket; he said relative returns are high but market volume and liquidity remain too thin for a large fund. Performance is not confined to professionals: Hans323, a 23-year-old German law student, is a top weather-profit earner, while 1-800-LIQUIDITY (Atte) has made about $33,000 since October.
Patrick Brown of Interactive Brokers argues prediction markets may beat traditional forecasts, saying implied prices beat U.S. National Weather Service forecasts because people face direct financial rewards for accuracy and penalties for errors. Critics disagree. Atte still calls many trades socially useless despite profits, and recent cases also show risks, including manipulated front-line maps and pressure on journalists tied to prediction outcomes. Scientist-run markets are emerging as an alternative: Mark Roulston’s CRUCIAL, backed by Winton and supported by Scor, uses sponsor-provided capital and no loser-funded pools to aggregate expert judgment for reinsurance. It runs cyclone and four live El Niño markets; since weather derivatives began in the 1990s, insurers still face low liquidity and costly parametric constraints, and Jim Huang sees broader participation as a possible way to improve weather-risk pricing as climate risk rises after the last 11 years, the hottest on record.