这些“循环”交易在 2026 年 1 月 23 日 06:00（GMT+8）被描述为 AI 繁荣的金融底座：云计算公司与芯片商向 AI 实验室注资，而实验室再以大额算力与硬件采购回流给出资方。该结构把制造商与初创公司的现金流、估值与需求预期绑定在一起，使激励扭曲更可能发生，并在 AI 收入增长不及预期时放大连锁损失。

关键金额集中在 2023–2026：Microsoft 多年向 OpenAI 投入超过 130 亿美元，其中 2023 年初宣布的最大一笔为 100 亿美元；同年 Amazon 与 Google 分别承诺向 Anthropic 投入最高 40 亿美元与 20 亿美元，并绑定 AWS 训练与 Google 芯片/云。2024 年 Nvidia 以投资者身份加码 OpenAI、xAI、Mistral，同时这些公司继续依赖 Nvidia GPU。2025 年 Nvidia 投资 Nscale 与 Nebius，持有 CoreWeave 7% 股份，并同意向其购买 63 亿美元云服务；OpenAI 宣布向 Microsoft 购买 2500 亿美元云服务，部署“数百亿美元”规模的 AMD 芯片并有望成为 AMD 最大股东之一；Nvidia 还称将向 OpenAI 投资最高 1000 亿美元。2025 年末 Microsoft 与 Nvidia 还宣布对 Anthropic 合计投资最高 150 亿美元。2026 年，Amazon 据称与 OpenAI 洽谈至少 100 亿美元投资并配套算力合作。

脆弱点在于“双重暴露”：若 AI 产品收入增长更慢，实验室可能背负难以承受的数据中心与硬件账单，出资方既失去销售，又承受股权价值下跌；当少数买家占据市场大份额时风险更集中。估值图注指出：公募估值为市值，私募估值来自融资轮次，数据截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日与 2026 年 1 月 9 日。支持者称这更像“良性循环”，以融资+长期采购锁定稀缺芯片供给；Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 举例称，一方卖芯片有资本，另一方自信未来收入但“手头没有 500 亿美元”。文中还类比 1990 年代末光纤泡沫与 2000 年代初“容量互换”争议，提示资本开支攀升可能重演需求落空、破产与长期闲置产能。

These “circular” deals, dated Jan. 23, 2026 at 6:00 AM (GMT+8), are framed as the financial plumbing of the AI boom: cloud firms and chipmakers invest in AI labs, and the labs recycle cash back via large cloud and hardware purchases. This structure tightly links cash flow, valuations, and demand expectations across manufacturers and startups, increasing incentive distortions and the chance of cascading losses if AI revenues miss projections.

The numbers concentrate in 2023–2026. Microsoft has invested more than $13 billion in OpenAI, with its largest tranche ($10 billion) announced in early 2023; later in 2023, Amazon and Google agreed to invest up to $4 billion and $2 billion in Anthropic, tied to AWS training plus Google chips/cloud. In 2024, Nvidia invested in OpenAI, xAI, and Mistral as they continued to rely on Nvidia GPUs. In 2025, Nvidia backed neoclouds Nscale and Nebius, took a 7% stake in CoreWeave, and agreed to buy $6.3 billion of its cloud services; OpenAI said it would buy $250 billion of Microsoft cloud, deploy “tens of billions” of dollars of AMD chips while becoming one of AMD’s largest shareholders, and Nvidia said it may invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. Late 2025 brought up to $15 billion combined from Microsoft and Nvidia into Anthropic. In 2026, Amazon reportedly discussed investing at least $10 billion in OpenAI alongside compute purchases.

The fragility is “double exposure”: if AI product revenue grows slower, labs face untenable data-center bills, while investors lose sales and see equity stakes drop; concentration worsens the downside when a handful of buyers dominate. A valuation note sets public valuations as market caps and private valuations as funding-round marks, with data as of Dec. 31, 2023 and Jan. 9, 2026. Defenders argue financing plus long-term purchase commitments locks scarce supply; Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei cited a case where one side lacks “$50 billion at hand.” The piece also echoes the late-1990s fiber buildout and early-2000s “capacity swaps,” warning that capex surges and fast chip obsolescence can leave underused capacity and forced retrenchment.