在2026年4月下旬的访谈中，Wendy Sherman 认为，美国与 Israel 对 Iran 的战争比2015年她参与的核协议谈判环境更为动荡。经过 8 周后，伊朗的政权更硬、更具抵抗性，IRGC 的控制更强，她称对方更可能以“有条件放缓”而非放弃关键筹码。她指出，美国若继续要求 Tehran 立刻“投降”，将与现实不符，因为 Iran 可能会暂缓 enrichment，却不会轻易放弃其法律上和战略上的权利；对代价敏感的安排也不可能立刻达成。

在她看来，军事威慑仍是谈判背景的一部分，但特朗普目前的策略偏战术与交易化，缺乏连贯的长期方案。美国已经付出高昂成本：盟友关系受损、美国纳税人承担负担、已有 13 名美国人丧生，以及武器库存与投射能力被快速消耗。霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）虽有可能暂时重开，但保险市场仍将其风险定得很高，说明航道控制权与议价权仍在伊朗一侧。她预计最可行结局是框架协议而非即刻解决，可能出现 10、15 或 20 年暂停 enrichment，并由 IAEA 进行高强度核查、并对导弹与代理人关系设限、并打开海峡；但高浓缩铀库存处理与技术条款落实往往需数周、数月，甚至一年以上。

她将更大风险指向地缘结构重排：这场冲突加快了 China 与 Russia 的受益路径，石油可望以 yuan 计价、美元（USD）作为唯一计价与储备货币的地位进一步被分散化，导致 allies 在北京寻求替代路线。Iran 的不对称作战显示对抗方可耗散美国优势，亦给 China 提供了关于 Taiwan 与周边战术的可借鉴样本。Trump 同时面对 markets、munitions 与 midterms 的短期压力，可能低估长期后果；再叠加前期 Iraq 与 Gaza 的代价（她特别指 Netanyahu 领导下的局势与持续的人道灾难），使中东长期不稳定风险和美国战略耗损同步上升。

In a late-April 2026 interview, Wendy Sherman argues the US-Israel war with Iran is far riskier than the nuclear talks she helped lead in 2015. Eight weeks in, she says Tehran is tougher and more hardline under stronger IRGC influence: it may suspend enrichment temporarily, but is unlikely to surrender core capabilities. She says Trump expects capitulation, while the Iranian system is likely to negotiate only by narrowing the ask, not by full concession.

Sherman says force can create leverage, but she says the US lacks a coherent strategy and has already paid major costs: strained alliances, pressure on US taxpayers, 13 American lives lost, and heavy consumption of weapons stock and power projection. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was open; now insurance is still priced for high risk even during brief reopenings, showing Tehran still holds leverage. Any eventual deal, she says, may only settle broad principles first—possibly a 10, 15, or 20-year suspension of enrichment, intrusive IAEA verification, limits on missiles and proxies, and security guarantees for shipping—but stockpile resolution and implementation could run for weeks, then months, possibly over a year.

She also sees a broader strategic shift favoring China and Russia: Yuan-based oil payment language in Tehran, reduced monopoly of the US dollar in global reserves, and faster movement toward multi-currency trade. Traditional allies such as Canada and the UK have already hedged toward Beijing. Sherman says Trump is focused on markets, munitions, and midterms, while Iran’s asymmetric methods and prolonged war provide strategic lessons that China could apply against Taiwan. Added to prior instability in Gaza and Iraq, this raises long-term risks to the Middle East and to US strategic bandwidth in the era of AI and quantum competition.