中国正在以前所未有的规模和速度推动可再生能源扩张，其影响已远超国内。2024年全球电力装机容量约为10太瓦，而中国的太阳能产业链已具备每年生产1太瓦光伏组件的能力。仅2025年前五个月，中国新增太阳能装机约197吉瓦，其中5月单月新增92吉瓦，相当于每天3吉瓦。这一激增源于政策调整前的集中抢装，随后四个月月均新增降至约10吉瓦，但仍显著高于美国峰值水平。
如此规模的扩张对电网和市场造成严重冲击。过剩的太阳能发电导致限电和弃电现象，并在部分地区引发电压波动甚至停电。电力价格在供给远超需求的情况下被压至零以下，山东等人口密集省份已频繁出现负电价。与此同时，太阳能制造端也陷入危机，从多晶硅到组件的全产业链产能过剩引发价格战，利润被压缩，企业负债上升，生存依赖持续扩张和技术迭代。
这些动态正在全球外溢。廉价中国光伏推动欧洲出现负电价，在巴基斯坦引发电网“死亡螺旋”。类似路径也出现在电动车领域：到2024年，中国近一半新售汽车为插电式，出口量达550万辆，冲击全球汽车产业。消费者和减排目标成为最大受益者，但企业、金融体系和能源治理面临失序风险。中国的可再生能源革命正在以混乱方式重塑全球能源与工业结构，其速度已超过现有制度的承受能力。
China is driving a renewable energy expansion at unprecedented scale and speed, with impacts far beyond its borders. In 2024, global installed electricity capacity totaled about 10 terawatts, while China’s solar supply chain alone can now produce 1 terawatt of panels per year. In the first five months of 2025, China added roughly 197 gigawatts of solar capacity, including 92 gigawatts in May alone, or about 3 gigawatts per day. This surge was driven by a policy deadline, after which monthly additions fell to about 10 gigawatts, still well above US peak levels.
The scale of deployment is straining grids and markets. Oversupply has led to widespread curtailment of solar power and, in some regions, voltage instability and blackouts. Electricity prices have collapsed, with negative prices becoming common in densely populated provinces such as Shandong. At the manufacturing level, oversupply spans the entire solar value chain, from polysilicon to finished panels, triggering price wars, eroding margins, and leaving firms highly leveraged and dependent on constant expansion and rapid technological upgrades.
These dynamics are spilling globally. Cheap Chinese panels have contributed to negative power prices in Europe and a grid “death spiral” in Pakistan. A parallel pattern is visible in electric vehicles: by 2024, nearly half of cars sold in China were plug-in models, exports reached 5.5 million units, and global auto industries felt intense pressure. Consumers and decarbonization goals benefit most, while firms, financial systems, and energy governance struggle to adapt. China’s renewable revolution is remaking global energy and industry in a disorderly way, at a pace faster than existing systems can absorb.