美元今年位于 G-10 货币表现的末端，显示投资人对其传统避险资产地位的评价正在转变。压力来源包含对美国赤字扩大的担忧、贸易摩擦，以及加速分散配置至黄金与其他储备资产；且推动力量不仅是情绪，而是伴随显著资金流。周一经由 Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation 的交易量创下史上第二高，仅次于 2025-04-03 的抛售；以 4 日滚动平均衡量的市场参与度亦达到历史新高。部位呈现单边化：自周四起，euro 与 Australian dollar 的期权交易中约 2/3 为押注美元进一步走弱。
避险成本的上升反映在波动度指标：1 周期美元隐含波动度升至自 9 月初以来最高；衡量对「超大幅度」波动保护需求的 butterflies 亦升至 7 个月高点，显示交易者正为美元延续脱离近期区间的走势作准备。美元的下跌另受一项情境推升：市场揣测美国政府可能愿与日本货币当局合作，为走弱的 yen 设定底线。Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 于周二纽约早盘变动不大，但仍仅较其 2025 年低点高出 0.3%；Danske Bank A/S 的 Jesper Fjarstedt 与 Citi 的 Luis Costa 均将美元走弱归因于美国政策与政治不确定性升高，并提及潜在政府停摆风险促使市场转向美元空头与政治风险溢价再度嵌入。
At 2026-01-27 18:54 (GMT+8; i.e., UTC+8), FX traders are paying a record cost to position for a deeper selloff in the US dollar (the greenback). The bearish premium in short-dated options that profit from a weaker dollar has widened to the highest level since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2011, and pessimism extends beyond the front end, with investors most negative on the long-term outlook since at least 2025-05. While the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung on Tuesday, its prior three-day drop was the steepest since the US tariff turbulence in “April last year”; if losses resume as option prices imply, the dollar could reach its weakest level in four years.
The dollar is at the bottom of the G-10 pack this year, signaling a shift in how investors view the traditional haven asset. Pressure is tied to concerns about rising US deficits and trade frictions, alongside accelerating diversification into gold and other reserve assets, and the move is supported by heavy flows rather than sentiment alone. On Monday, volumes routed through the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation hit the second-highest on record, topped only by the selloff on 2025-04-03, while a four-day rolling average shows participation at an all-time high. Positioning is notably one-sided: since Thursday, about two-thirds of options trades in the euro and the Australian dollar have been bets on further greenback weakness.
Hedging costs reflect the anxiety: one-week dollar volatility has spiked to its highest since early September, and butterflies—capturing demand for protection against outsized moves—have climbed to a seven-month high, indicating preparation for an extension of the dollar’s break out of recent ranges. The slide is also amplified by speculation that the US administration could coordinate with Japanese monetary authorities to put a floor under the yen. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed early Tuesday in New York but sat just 0.3% above its 2025 low; Danske Bank A/S’s Jesper Fjarstedt and Citi’s Luis Costa both frame the weakness as driven by US political and policy volatility, with potential government shutdown risk pushing markets toward dollar shorts and a renewed political risk premium.