巴西的警示在于：在经济增长尚可、央行独立且初级预算（不含利息）几乎平衡的情况下，净债务约为 GDP 的 66%，但高利率使财政轨迹迅速恶化。为控通胀，短期利率被设在 15%，因此政府即便接近初级平衡，也可能仍需每年再借约 GDP 的 8% 来支付利息，除非利率大幅下跌，否则公共债务将激增。

与借款成本处于低到中个位数的美国、英国、法国和意大利不同，这些富裕经济体若能实现初级预算平衡（或接近）即可稳定债务，而巴西在利率不降的情况下大概要实现约 GDP 的 5% 的初级盈余才能稳住债务。这一利率差距被归因于制度韧性偏弱（2022 年曾在博索纳罗任内政变企图中动摇）、对通胀更敏感（源于 1980 年代与 1990 年代初的恶性通胀遗产及 2010 年代中期危机）以及更糟糕的长期财政路径。

长期支出压力尤以养老金为甚：政府已将约 GDP 的 10% 用于养老金，若无改革，到 2050 年这一占比将超过更富、更老龄国家，而且宪法性保护（如最低工资上调会带动养老金上调）挤出其他支出并削弱控账能力。富国出现“巴西化”早期症状：通胀风险上升、养老与医疗随老龄化扩张，若利率被推高，当前为国防挤出额外 GDP 的 1% 或 2% 的难题将被债息需求成倍放大，并将政策推向更痛苦的取舍。

Brazil’s warning is that with decent growth, an independent central bank, and a near-balanced primary budget (excluding interest), net debt is about 66% of GDP, yet high rates rapidly worsen the fiscal path. To control inflation, short-term rates are set at 15%, so even near primary balance the government will likely borrow about 8% of GDP per year to pay interest, and public debt will surge unless rates fall a lot.

Unlike the United States, Britain, France, and Italy, which borrow at low-to-mid single-digit costs and could stabilize debt by balancing (or nearly balancing) primary budgets, Brazil would need a primary surplus of around 5% of GDP to keep debt stable if rates do not fall. This rate gap is linked to weaker institutional resilience (shaken by an attempted coup in 2022 under Jair Bolsonaro), a shorter inflation fuse (shaped by hyperinflation in the 1980s and early 1990s and a mid-2010s crisis), and a dire long-run budget trajectory.

Long-run spending pressure is starkest in pensions: the government already spends 10% of GDP on pensions and, without reforms, will spend more by 2050 than richer, older countries, with constitutional protections (such as pension increases tied to minimum-wage rises) crowding out other outlays and impeding balance. Rich countries show early “Brazilification” symptoms as inflation risk rises and pension and health spending grows with aging, and if that pushes up interest rates, today’s struggle to find an extra 1% or 2% of GDP for defense could be multiplied by debt-interest demands, forcing far more painful tradeoffs.

Source: The rich world should beware Brazilificatio

Subtitle: When governments are indebted, high interest rates wreak havoc

Dateline: 2月 12, 2026 05:49 上午