若2025年是华尔街开始怀疑大型科技公司高价AI投资回报的一年，文章指出2026年可能是美国至少一个AI落地场景在「有意义规模」证明商业案例的一年：自动驾驶叫车，领头者是Alphabet旗下Waymo，过去一年已在旧金山、洛杉矶等城市运行。

Waymo目标在「明年年底」每周服务超过100万趟；据报正洽谈以接近1,000亿美元估值募资，约为一年前的两倍，且年化营收run rate已超过3.5亿美元。依其公开公告统计，截至撰写时Waymo已获准或正在美国人口普查局定义的前30大都会区中的26个测试/运营；目前在5个城市合计约2,500辆车，并计划于2026年再新增12座城市（含伦敦及更多美国城市）。

2025年Waymo透过Uber扩张至奥斯汀与亚特兰大并取得部分高速公路行驶权，商业市场达5个；其策略是以合作伙伴分担清洁、充电与维护等劳务，已合作2家Uber支持的车队管理公司，后续还将引入Lyft（纳什维尔）与Avis（达拉斯）。文章同时提到「edge cases」引发的更新需求与一次在旧金山大停电影响交通的暂停服务；Waymo宣称在行人相关伤害事故上比人类驾驶少12倍，而Alphabet执行长称该业务到2027–28年才会对母公司财务「有意义」，且2026年仍需观察各家机器人计程车能否盈利。

If 2025 marked Wall Street’s growing doubt about Big Tech’s costly AI bets, 2026 may be the year a U.S. AI application proves a business case at meaningful scale: robotaxis. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous-driving unit, has operated in cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles over the past year and is targeting more than 1 million rides per week by the end of next year.

Investor expectations are rising. Reports say Waymo is discussing funding at a near $100 billion valuation—about double a year earlier—and has an annualized revenue run rate above $350 million. From public announcements, Waymo is permitted to or already testing in 26 of the top 30 U.S. metro areas; it currently runs about 2,500 vehicles across five cities and plans launches in 12 more cities in 2026, including London and additional U.S. markets.

Expansion depends on partnerships to offload labor-heavy work (cleaning, charging, maintenance): Waymo has used two Uber-backed fleet managers and is adding partners like Lyft in Nashville and Avis in Dallas. Alphabet’s CEO has said the business won’t be financially “meaningful” until 2027–28. Meanwhile, other developers are planning 2026 rollouts (Uber cites 10+ markets globally), and Waymo’s scale-up exposed “edge cases,” service suspensions, and a major-power-outage freeze, even as it claims 12× fewer pedestrian injury crashes than human drivers.