中国生产全球80%以上的太阳能板，且去年全球可再生能源发电量超过煤炭，但其太阳能行业未能从伊朗战争引发的出口提振中稳定下来。核心需求问题在国内电网过载：1—2月中国约9%的太阳能发电被浪费，高于去年同期的6%，而今年新增装机可能较2025年下降24%至43%，足以使2026年全球太阳能板需求出现二十年来首次下降。
供给侧更加失衡：多年投资使中国企业年产能超过1,000吉瓦，远高于2025年全球安装的约600吉瓦，并且可能超过全球市场可吸收的规模。价格战使多数企业自2024年以来亏损，限产和价格底线尝试失败，同时政策支持退潮，包括去年6月后新项目转向市场电价、4月1日起出口退税停止，以及地方政府追讨数百万元补贴。
外部市场也收紧，美国自2022年以来实施严格进口限制和高额关税，欧盟5月表示将在欧盟资助项目中逐步淘汰中国逆变器供应商。自2024年以来已有40多家中国太阳能企业破产、被收购或退市，五大企业裁员约三分之一，龙头股价均低于数年前峰值的一半；未来希望在于贸易壁垒下降或钙钛矿等技术把效率从当前22%至24%提高到30%以上。
China makes more than 80% of the world’s solar panels, and renewables generated more electricity than coal globally last year, but its solar industry has not been stabilised by the export lift from the war on Iran. The central demand problem is overloaded domestic grids: in January-February about 9% of China’s solar generation was wasted, up from 6% a year earlier, while installations this year may fall 24% to 43% from 2025, enough to make global solar-panel demand decline in 2026 for the first time in two decades.
The supply side is even more imbalanced: years of investment have left Chinese firms with annual capacity above 1,000GW, far above the roughly 600GW installed worldwide in 2025 and probably beyond what the global market can absorb. Price wars have kept most firms loss-making since 2024, attempts at output quotas and price floors have faltered, and policy support is retreating, including market pricing for new projects after last June, the end of export tax refunds from April 1st, and local demands to return millions of yuan in subsidies.
External markets are also tightening, with America imposing strict import restrictions and heavy tariffs since 2022 and the EU saying in May that it would phase out Chinese inverter suppliers from EU-funded projects. Since 2024 more than 40 Chinese solar firms have gone bankrupt, been acquired or delisted, the five biggest firms have cut about one-third of their workforce, and leading share prices are below half their peaks; the main hopes are lower trade barriers or technologies such as perovskites lifting efficiency from today’s 22-24% to above 30%.
Source: China’s world-beating solar industry is in turmoil
Subtitle: The Gulf war won’t save it
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:18 上午 | Beijing