全球只有19个国家的GDP超过1万亿美元，但中国在今年前11个月的货物净出口已经超过1万亿美元，在美国加征关税的背景下仍创历史新高，部分是通过转向其他市场和曲折贸易路线实现的。若计入将大约减少1800亿美元的服务贸易逆差，并考虑未纳入统计的部分自贸区交易，这一顺差规模会略小一些。

过去四个季度，中国经常账户顺差约6500亿美元，相当于GDP的大约3.4%，这在绝对规模上巨大，却在相对比重上并不极端。按照IMF的衡量，去年有45个经济体的顺差占GDP比重高于中国，其中包括马龙总统所在的欧盟的8个成员国。

然而，这一顺差也反映出国内需求疲弱：中国通胀危险地偏低，就业和消费信心低迷，房地产市场已陷入似乎难以化解的第五年下行，而政策制定者更多依赖出口而非大规模财政刺激。若贸易战进一步波及欧洲，或全球因AI泡沫破裂而需求下滑，中国将被迫在更不利的时点实施更猛烈的内需刺激，暴露出对外需稳定本国经济的风险。

In the past four quarters, China's current-account surplus has reached about $650 billion, which is around 3.4% of its GDP. The IMF notes that this share is surpassed by forty-five other economies, including eight in the European Union. This indicates that while China's external surplus is substantial in absolute figures, it isn't exceptionally imbalanced when compared to its overall economic size.

China's dependence on its surplus highlights underlying weaknesses in domestic demand. Currently, inflation is quite low, hiring remains sluggish, and consumers are cautious. The property sector is now in its fifth year of decline. Consequently, policymakers are relying on exports instead of implementing a significant fiscal boost, which leaves the economy exposed. Should the trade war escalate to Europe or a global AI downturn occur, foreign demand may decrease, necessitating a tougher, delayed adjustment later.

Only nineteen countries have GDP above $1trn, yet China’s net goods exports in the first eleven months already exceeded $1trn, a record surplus achieved despite American tariffs, partly by diverting trade to alternative markets and routes, while services trade would subtract about $180bn and some free-trade-zone transactions are not counted.

Source: Don’t fear China’s trilliondollar trade surplus

Subtitle: It is a problem not for the rest of the world, but for China

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:22 上午