公司仍在「有限扩张」：8月宣布福岛工厂新增最终处理产线、预计2027年上线，并翻新郡山工厂发电设备；11月与台湾南亚塑胶合作外包部分织造，让Nittobo更聚焦纱线制造与布料后段处理。市场反应剧烈：11月6日法说上调全年展望并暗示提前扩产后，股价两周内翻倍，11月20日冲上历史高点16,150；其后受AI股回档与辉达库存疑虑影响，12月18日回落至约10,000。
多田预期AI驱动的晶片景气自2024年加速后，虽有短期回档但上行循环可延续到2030年前后；WSTS估计半导体销售在2024年成长19.7%后，今年与明年分别再增22.5%与26.3%。材料端规模相对小：2024年晶片材料市场约675亿美元、年增3.8%，约为晶片市场6,310亿美元的十分之一；仍见同业大额投资，如东京应化工业投入200亿日圆在韩国扩建、产能最高增4倍，旭化成再投160亿日圆新增产线、预计2028年上线。同时，12月2日日本电气硝子推出类似玻纤、以及玻璃核心基板等新技术，都提高被替代风险。
Nitto Boseki (Nittobo) holds about 90% of the global market for premium low-CTE glass fabric used in advanced chip substrates, helping lift profits and its share price by over 55% this year. Despite customers pressing for more output, CEO Hiroyuki Tada says matching AI-market growth with capacity expansion is risky; orders surged over the past two years, and the company cannot guarantee it can fulfill everything.
Expansion is targeted, not massive: a final treatment line at the Fukushima plant is planned to come online in 2027, power generation at the Koriyama plant has been revamped, and a November partnership with Nan Ya Plastics outsources part of weaving so Nittobo can focus on yarn and processing. After a Nov. 6 earnings call raised the full-year outlook and hinted at faster expansion, the stock doubled in two weeks to 16,150 on Nov. 20, then fell to around 10,000 by Dec. 18.
Tada expects the AI chip boom that accelerated in 2024 to trend upward through 2030 with short-term dips. WSTS projects semiconductor sales growth of 19.7% in 2024, then 22.5% this year and 26.3% next year. Upstream materials are smaller but meaningful: the chip-materials market was $67.5B in 2024 (+3.8% YoY), about one-tenth of the $631B chips market. Peers are investing (20B yen and up to 4x capacity in Korea; 16B yen for a line due in 2028) while substitution risks rise (a Dec. 2 rival product and possible glass-core substrates).
