下跌的触发因素包括 Washington 政策的不确定性（含 Donald Trump 对 Greenland 的威胁）、对 Federal Reserve 独立性的压力、对美国财政前景与债务扩张的担忧，以及政治极化。美元指标在周二跌至 2022 年 3 月以来最低，推动其他货币走高：euro 触及 $1.1990、pound 上涨 0.8% 至 $1.3791、Swiss franc 上涨 1.4% 至每美元 0.7660（0.7660 per dollar），皆为多年高位；yen 在 New York 一度上涨约 1% 至 152.57。市场亦聚焦干预线索：交易员报告指出 Federal Reserve Bank of New York 曾就美元兑日圆汇率进行「rate-check」，且日本官员暗示可能在必要时与美方协调行动；yen 的三日反弹为自 2024 年 8 月全球套息交易（carry trades）崩溃以来最佳。
衍生品与成交数据显示看空美元的定价正在加速：做空美元的短天期期权溢价升至 Bloomberg 自 2011 年开始统计以来最高，G-10 期权成交活跃；周一透过 Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation 的成交量创历史第二高，仅次于 2025 年 4 月 3 日。包含利息回报的 emerging-market 货币指数连涨第四日并创新高；同时，全球成长预期偏韧性、股市上行，支撑资金寻求美国以外的回报。即使市场预期 Federal Reserve 将在周三维持利率不变，定价仍反映今年接近两次各 25 个基点（quarter-point）的降息；再加上下一任 Fed 主席人选的不确定性与联邦政府关门风险，强化了「美元风险溢价重建」与本周「relentless」后续抛售仍可能延伸的判断。
In the $9.5 trillion-per-day currency market, traders are positioning for further US dollar losses as US policy risk and a stronger yen push the leading reserve currency to its weakest level in nearly four years. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) has posted its steepest four-day drop since the April tariff rollout, while the cost investors are paying to hedge a deeper selloff has reached a record high; the dollar entered January on weak footing after its worst year since 2017.
The decline is being attributed to Washington policy unpredictability (including Donald Trump’s Greenland threats), perceived pressure on Federal Reserve independence, concerns about the US fiscal outlook and rising debt, and political polarization. On Tuesday the dollar gauge fell to its weakest since March 2022, lifting peers: the euro hit $1.1990, the pound rose 0.8% to $1.3791, and the Swiss franc gained 1.4% to 0.7660 per dollar, all at multi-year highs; the yen climbed about 1% to 152.57 in New York. Intervention signals are also in focus after reports that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a dollar-yen “rate-check,” alongside Japanese officials’ hints of coordinated action if needed; the yen’s three-day rally is its best since the August 2024 carry-trade unwind.
Derivatives and volume data show bearish-dollar pricing intensifying: premiums for short-dated options that profit from a weaker US currency are the highest since Bloomberg began tracking them in 2011, with heavy G-10 options turnover; Monday’s turnover through the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation was the second-highest on record, behind only April 3, 2025. An emerging-market currency index including carry returns rose for a fourth day to a record, while resilient global growth expectations and higher equities support returns-seeking outside the US. Even with expectations the Federal Reserve holds rates steady on Wednesday, markets still price nearly two 25-basis-point cuts this year; combined with uncertainty over the next Fed chair and renewed federal shutdown risk, this reinforces views that a rebuilding “dollar risk premium” and this week’s “relentless” follow-through selling still have room to run.