文章认为香港交易所（HKEX）在 2025 年 IPO 与二次上市融资回升之际，通过放宽上市与价格发现相关规则吸引发行，但由此把更高风险转嫁给投资者。恒生指数近一个月走势震荡；尽管存在市场波动与区域交易所竞争，HKEX 在 EY 的年度排名中仍被列为全球 IPO 规模与募资额领先的交易所之一，2025 年募资约 350 亿美元。改革自 8 月 4 日生效后，上市申请显著增加，体现“放松约束→申请上升”的方向性趋势。
关键数值变化在于公众持股量（public float）门槛与退市机制：按分层要求，市值较大的公司可仅浮动 10%–25% 股份；若未达公众持股配额，不再自动停牌，只要提供恢复计划的充分信息即可维持上市。这种“更低浮动比例 + 更弱即时惩戒”的组合，被认为提高了初始估值被抬高与上市后回落的概率，尤其当商业基本面与治理质量未经充分尽调时。
作者用既往规则松绑的结果提示尾部风险。2018 年推出的 Chapter 18A 允许未盈利生物科技公司更轻量审核上市，迄今促成 70+ 生物科技上市、募资 160 亿美元，但也出现快速下跌案例：Ascletis Pharma 以 HK$14 开盘价起步，约 1 个月内下跌约 45%。2023 年 Chapter 18C 放宽“专精科技”公司（云、AI、机器人、电动车等，含商业化与未商业化阶段）上市门槛，提升未盈利独角兽吸引力，同时也出现首日/初期亏损：Black Sesame 上市后下跌 27%。近期例子是储能电池企业 Hithium：其首次 IPO 申请在 6 个月后失效并已重提交 A1；虽与美国（德州建厂）和沙特（Saudi Electricity Company 合作）等高调项目相关，但监管挑战与研发/扩产瓶颈导致其上市准备度被质疑。整体统计图景是：更宽松的门槛提高了“夸大增长潜力与回报率—随后快速修正”的发生概率，而瓶颈可能在数周内出现。
The article argues that as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) revives IPO and secondary-listing fundraising in 2025 by easing listing and price-discovery-related rules, it is taking on excessive risk that can be passed to investors. The Hang Seng Index has been choppy over the past month; despite volatility and regional competition, EY’s annual ranking places HKEX among top global venues for IPO volumes and proceeds, with about $35 billion raised in 2025. Reforms effective Aug. 4 are linked to a significant uptick in listing applications, indicating a “looser rules → more applicants” trend.
The key numeric mechanics are the tiered public-float threshold and softer enforcement. Under the new structure, large-market-cap companies can float as little as 10% to 25% of shares. If a firm falls short of its float quota, it can avoid automatic suspension and remain listed by providing sufficient information on how it will restore the float. This combination of lower free-float and reduced immediate penalties is framed as increasing the odds of inflated initial valuations followed by post-listing drops when fundamentals or governance are weak.
Past liberalizations are used as quantified cautionary tails. Chapter 18A rules introduced in 2018 enabled pre-revenue biotech listings, facilitating 70+ listings and $16 billion raised, but also sharp early declines: Ascletis Pharma began at HK$14 and lost about 45% in roughly a month. Chapter 18C rules in 2023 expanded access for “specialist technology” firms (cloud, AI, robotics, EVs, etc., commercial and pre-commercial), boosting appeal to pre-revenue unicorns yet showing similar launch losses, such as chipmaker Black Sesame dropping 27% after debut. A current example is battery-storage maker Hithium: its first IPO application lapsed after six months and it has resubmitted an A1 filing; despite high-profile US (Texas plant) and Saudi (Saudi Electricity Company) ties, regulators questioned readiness due to compliance challenges and development bottlenecks. The implied statistical pattern is that looser gates increase the probability of overstated growth/returns and rapid weeks-to-months repricing.