文章指出，当前减排的最大希望反而来自中国和川普这一对意想不到的组合。中国过去十多年投入数兆美元于可再生能源和电动车等绿色科技，其动机更多出于能源安全和战略产业政策，而非环保。与此同时，川普发动的伊朗战争推高了油价，意外成为全球最出人意料的碳定价机制，刺激了绿色科技的销售激增，包括在美国本土。廉价的中国太阳能板大量涌入全球市场，其带来的正外部性可能远超市场扭曲的低效损失。
然而，作者提醒这是否为可再生能源的真正转捩点仍不确定。油价危机同时也促使各国增加煤炭等其他化石燃料的使用，且油价高于每桶100美元的时间仅持续数周，冲击的规模和持久性尚不明朗。作者认为，欧盟开创的高效且可预测的碳定价模式仍应是应对气候变迁的重要组成部分，因为目前依赖中国倾销绿色科技、川普无意间创造需求的路径并无持续的保证，但这荒谬的组合暂时是我们拥有的最佳希望之一。
This article examines how economists' long-championed carbon pricing mechanisms have struggled in practice. The EU's Emissions Trading Scheme and its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have had limited success in creating a global carbon price, with the US failing to pass cap-and-trade legislation and international harmonisation efforts stalling at the OECD and WTO. At the COP climate conference, major emitters like India and China accused the EU of climate protectionism, further undermining the multilateral carbon-pricing vision. (Key numbers: 2005, 2010)
Ironically, the greatest near-term hope for emissions reduction comes from an unlikely pairing: China, a massive coal consumer that has invested trillions in renewable energy and green technology primarily for energy security reasons, and Donald Trump, an outright climate change denier whose Iran war drove up oil prices and inadvertently boosted global demand for green alternatives. The author argues that the positive externalities of China's cheap solar panels flooding world markets likely outweigh any inefficiency from distorted market signals, even if economists might not endorse the approach.
However, the article cautions that this may not represent a lasting tipping point for renewable energy. The oil shock has also increased coal and other fossil fuel consumption, and oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel for only a few weeks. While the EU's predictable carbon pricing model should ideally remain part of the climate policy mix, there is no guarantee the current path—driven by Chinese green tech exports and Trump-created demand—will endure. Yet for now, this bizarre confluence of forces represents one of the best hopes available for global emissions reduction.