委内瑞拉正处于两种矛盾时刻之间：卡拉卡斯仍悬挂着爱德蒙多·冈萨雷斯的通缉海报（他是被争议的2024年选举的实际胜利者），而曾将美国称为主要敌人的官员如今却在展开公开合作；美国使馆从JW Marriott酒店17层的临时办事处转回3月30日重开的使馆。移民柜台现在使用五种语言（英语、西班牙语、阿拉伯语、中文和俄语），象征着新一轮国际开放，即便政治格局仍然支离破碎。

自1月以来至少有700名政治犯获释，但仍有约500人仍被监禁，因此在这组已知人员中约有42%仍在狱中；大赦法只被选择性执行，部分被拘者（包括自2024年9月被捕的卡洛斯）仍遭受窒息、长期清理排泄物、被剥夺真实律师并反复被拒绝减刑。公众生活更具公开性：教师正在为加薪示威，而当局则组织反对美国制裁的反集会；拉维加在一处约60人的反对派会议上公开讨论选民登记，并估计九个月内可能举行选举。

在首都俱乐部，会员费自1月起已翻倍至超过12万美元，商界对商品前景普遍看涨，但普遍认为必须先改革法院和选举机构，因此倾向于两到三年后再举行选举。政权大概率会拖延，但随着恐惧减退、耐心流失和经济痛苦加深，委内瑞拉人未必愿意再等三年才投票。

Venezuela sits between two contradictory moments: wanted posters of Edmundo González, the real winner of the disputed 2024 election, remain in Caracas while officials who once treated the United States as the main enemy now pursue visible cooperation; the U.S. mission shifted from an office on the 17th floor of the JW Marriott back to the embassy reopened on March 30. Immigration desks now operate in five languages (English, Spanish, Arabic, Chinese, and Russian), signaling a new international opening even though politics stay fractured.

At least 700 political prisoners have been released since January, while about 500 remain incarcerated, meaning roughly 42% of this known set are still in jail; amnesty is being applied selectively, and some detainees (including Carlos, arrested in September 2024) still report smothering, months of forced excrement cleaning, denial of real legal counsel, and repeated rejection of relief. Public life has become more open: teachers are demonstrating for wage increases while the regime appears to stage anti-U.S.-sanctions rallies, and in La Vega around 60 opposition supporters now meet openly to discuss voter registration and a possible ballot within nine months.

At Caracas Country Club, membership fees have more than doubled since January to over $120,000, reflecting business optimism on commodities, yet business leaders still argue that courts and the electoral authority should be reworked first, which pushes preferred election timing out to two or three years. The regime is likely to buy time, but with fear receding, impatience rising, and economic pain deepening, Venezuelans may no longer accept waiting another three years for a vote.

Source: The Venezuela Donald Trump “runs” is a land of surreal contrasts

Subtitle: Animal spirits are stirring. The opposition has hope. The regime’s softening of repression is uneve

Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:21 上午 | Caracas