在一年前的大选中，标志着加拿大自由党新上任政治家马克·卡尼赢得了169个议席，仅差3席就可组建多数政府。此后已有4名反对党议员“跨党”，同时空出3个自由党席位，补选将于4月13日举行，其中两个选区多年稳定支持自由党。 政治史上加拿大全国范围内一个世纪以来尚未出现通过补选赢得多数的总理先例，执政11年党派达到如此高支持度也罕见。民调显示自由党对保守党仍有两位数优势，2025年4月全国投票时差距仅2.5个百分点，但卡尼本人支持率比皮埃尔·普伊列弗雷高30个百分点，61%的加拿大人对他有好感。

卡尼的少数政府得益于其个人支持度；11月在不信任投票前，保守党因害怕触发新一轮选举而不敢与其对抗，甚至有人躲在窗帘后面。普伊列弗雷已失去3名国会议员，也从民粹口号、飞行员夹克和紧身T恤转向深色正装并承诺与自由党合作。 若形成多数政府，卡尼将可决定下一次大选时点，并可掌控调控立法推进速度的委员会（尽管他声称不会这样做）；这也意味着国防力量强化、新建太平洋沿岸油气管道和对接亚洲出口终端等关键项目将难以再以“缺乏共识”作借口拖延。

尽管履约成果有限，选民似乎更重视其对特朗普的强硬姿态；卡尼承诺2025年7月前与美国达成结束贸易打击的协议未能兑现，美国依旧讨论“加拿大成为第51州”或称其为“州长”这样的表述，且加拿大经济表现低迷，出口同比下降1.7%、私营投资下降0.3%，2月失业率升至6.7%，主要因84,000个岗位流失，且多集中于青年人群。 这并未明显削弱其支持率，民调分析师认为，前央行行长的“危机管理履历”让卡尼在关键时刻显得更具可信度，回应“人人都想要一个会抱抱的人”论点的并非拥抱，而是能抵御外部压力的领导者。 若未来仅凭一席之差形成多数，权力将更多落在偏左、深受特鲁多时代影响的后备议员手中，尤其在气候与能源议题上；他们已促使卡尼放缓对特朗普对伊朗战争最初支持的立场，且他被形容“玻璃心”不善受批评，但只要民意热度持续，党内反对很可能仍保持克制，且不少议员在其领导下才获得席位，因此政府“很大程度上仍在畏惧他”。

In a general election a year ago, Liberal leader Mark Carney won 169 seats, only three short of a majority. Since then, four opposition MPs have crossed the floor, three Liberal seats are vacant, and by-elections are scheduled for April 13, with two of those ridings historically voting Liberal for years. Historical context is unusual: no Canadian prime minister in the last century has secured a majority through by-elections, and few governments in their 11th year of power enjoy such public support. Polling still shows a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, with a narrow 2.5-point gap in national polling in April 2025; Carney’s favorability is 30 points above Pierre Poilievre, and 61% of Canadians say they think well of him.

Carney’s minority administration has been propped up by personal backing; in November before a confidence vote, Conservatives were so wary of triggering another election that some MPs hid behind curtains to avoid voting against him, and Poilievre has since lost three MPs and shifted from populist style to sober suits and cooperation pledges. A majority would let Carney set the timing of the next election and control committee levers that set legislative speed (despite his stated refusal to do so), which would remove excuses for delays on military rebuilding and on projects such as the Pacific pipeline and oil-and-gas export terminals to Asia.

Despite limited policy delivery, voters appear to value Carney’s willingness to stand up to Trump, as seen in his Jan. Davos speech calling “middle powers” to resist superpower coercion; promises and symbols have become secondary to perceived toughness in international disputes. Public mood is reflected in tough economic figures—GDP growth was the weakest since COVID, exports fell 1.7%, private investment fell 0.3%, and unemployment rose to 6.7% after 84,000 jobs were lost in February (mostly among youth)—yet his ratings remain strong because he is seen as a crisis-capable former central-bank governor. A narrow majority could empower a Trudeau-era left-leaning Liberal backbench, especially on climate and energy, but until polling support erodes, internal dissent is likely to remain constrained and many MPs, who owe their seats to him, are still reluctant to break publicly.

Source: Mark Carney’s honeymoon is about to get even better

Subtitle: The party of Canada’s prime minister is poised to take control of Parliament

Dateline: 4月 02, 2026 06:31 上午 | Ottawa