Tim Cook时代把Apple带向极度成功的财务模式：Services业务的利润率约75%，来自App Store与Apple Pay的收入已高于Netflix、Spotify与Adobe总和；公司还透过股息与回购回馈股东约1兆美元。可是，创新节奏放缓、R&D占营收比重曾从2001年的8%降至2012年的2%，iPhone换机周期拉长、2.5亿装置基础趋于饱和，而Vision Pro失利、Apple Car被取消，都显示Cook模式已难再提供过去的成长动能。
John Ternus将在9月接任CEO，肩负把Apple重新拉回Jobs式的硬体与软体整合路线，并把AI做成新世代产品核心。Apple已警告，新的产品、服务与技术可能取代既有产品，降低收入与利润率；同时其App Store抽成最高30%，正面临监管与反垄断压力，CFRA的Nicholas Rodelli估计，一旦这种「tax-taking model」被法律挑战瓦解，Apple的获利能力可能下滑8%到9%。
Apple faces an innovation gap: a 2025 Siri upgrade was pitched as a true AI companion, but after a nine-month deadline it failed, triggering a $250 million class-action settlement and executive exits including John Giannandrea. Apple is now a $4.5 trillion, 50-year-old company generating more than $1 billion in sales a day, yet it remains heavily dependent on the iPhone, launched in 2007, with 2025 shipments above 200 million units and roughly half of its $400 billion annual revenue tied to that device.
Tim Cook turned Apple into a financial powerhouse: Services, with about a 75% margin, brings in more revenue than Netflix, Spotify and Adobe combined, and the company has returned about $1 trillion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. But innovation has slowed: R&D fell from 8% of revenue in 2001 to a 2% low in 2012, upgrade cycles are lengthening, the 2.5 billion-device base looks saturated, Vision Pro flopped, and the Apple Car was abandoned, suggesting Cook’s model is losing its ability to sustain growth.
John Ternus will become CEO in September with a mandate to revive Apple’s Jobs-era approach of tightly integrated hardware and software, especially for AI. Apple has warned that new products and technologies may replace existing offerings and compress revenue and margins, while its App Store, which charges commissions of up to 30%, faces legal and regulatory pressure; CFRA’s Nicholas Rodelli estimates an 8% to 9% hit to earnings power if that toll-collection model is unwound.