过去20年里，新兴市场（EM）长期未能兑现预期：IMF估算本世纪以来新兴与发展中经济体每年平均增速都快于发达经济体，往往高出数个百分点，但MSCI新兴市场股指直到2021年才重回2007年峰值，随后又迅速下挫逾40%。如今反弹更强：该指数2025年上涨34%（发达市场对应指数为21%），而今年仅一个多月又再涨9%，多种EM货币对美元走强，本币EM债券回报也明显跑赢美欧高收益债。
后续走势在很大程度上取决于美元：自20世纪60年代末布雷顿森林固定汇率体系瓦解以来，美元经历过四次主要熊市，而每次EM股票都曾大涨。当前美元对一篮子发达经济体货币仅较2025年高点低11%，远小于2002至2008年间41%的跌幅，因此若抛售美元持续，EM在美元计价债务成本、以美元定价的贸易与大宗商品出口、以及资金再配置上仍有更大上行空间，同时主动型基金经理对EM股票的平均配置接近二十年来最低。
即便“卖出美国”交易不延续，EM的支撑点还包括估值、韧性与增长敏感性：EM股票未来一年预期收益的估值约为13倍，虽处于自身历史偏贵区间，但仍较美国标普500折价40%。其抗冲击能力在2022年全球通胀冲击中体现得更清楚（多国加息早于美联储与欧央行并成功降通胀），且IMF预测2026年全球GDP将稳步增长、EM增速将比富裕经济体高2.4个百分点，在美联储被认为将进一步降息且衰退担忧不高的背景下，这种“不过热也不过冷”的环境通常更利于风险略高但增长更快的资产。
Over the past 20 years, emerging markets (EMs) repeatedly failed to deliver: the IMF estimates that emerging and developing economies have grown faster than advanced ones every year this century, often by several percentage points, yet MSCI’s EM equity index only regained its 2007 peak in 2021 and then quickly fell by over 40%. The rebound is now stronger: the index rose 34% in 2025 (versus 21% for the developed-markets equivalent) and is up another 9% with this year barely a month old, with multiple EM currencies strengthening against the dollar and local-currency EM bonds outperforming American and European high-yield debt.
The next leg depends heavily on the dollar: since the late 1960s breakdown of Bretton Woods, the greenback has had four major bear markets, and each time EM stocks have surged. The dollar is currently only 11% below its 2025 high versus a 41% drop from 2002 to 2008, so if selling continues EMs could gain more via cheaper service of dollar debts, firmer dollar-priced trade and commodity exports, and reallocation flows, especially with active managers’ average EM equity weight near a two-decade low.
Even without a sustained “sell America” trade, support also comes from valuation, resilience, and growth sensitivity: EM equities trade around 13 times expected underlying earnings for the coming year, expensive versus their own history but still a 40% discount to America’s S&P 500. Resilience looked stronger in the 2022 global inflation shock (many tightened ahead of the Fed and ECB and reduced inflation), and the IMF expects 2026 global GDP to rise steadily with EMs outpacing rich economies by 2.4 percentage points, a “not too hot, not too cold” backdrop alongside expected further Fed cuts and limited recession fear that typically favors slightly riskier, faster-growing assets.
Source: Can emerging markets’ stellar run continue?
Subtitle: There is a lot more going for them than “sell America”
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 06:12 上午