2025 年可可价格约下跌 50%，为自 1960 年有纪录以来最陡的年度跌幅。即使 11 月一度跌破每吨 5,000 美元，如今仍反弹到纽约约 6,000 美元，因市场对本季「大幅过剩」的预期缩水。大型品牌保持谨慎：雀巢称仍太早给出具体调整，好时则预期通缩要到 2026 年更深处才会出现。
企业也在锁定成本并重做产品。德国 Lambertz 在高价时囤货，几乎可用到 2026 年年中，并使年度额外成本增加约 1.5 亿欧元（1.76 亿美元）——约为去年营收的五分之一——之后在转嫁成本后承受销量下滑。整个产业的配方与规格缩水可能会长期化：Milka 变轻 10% 同时价格上调约四分之一，而英国部分经典产品因改用较便宜植物油而无法再标示为「巧克力」。在真正降价前，更可能先看到短期促销。
After a historic rally, cocoa is heading for a record annual slump, yet retail chocolate stays high. Futures almost tripled in 2024 and hit nearly $13,000 a ton as disease and extreme weather cut crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which supply over half of global cocoa. Manufacturers raised prices and are still using high-cost beans, so cheaper cocoa may not reach shelves until the second half of 2026, if at all.
Cocoa is down about 50% in 2025, the steepest annual drop since records began in 1960. Even after sliding below $5,000 a ton in November, it has rebounded to around $6,000 in New York as expectations for a big surplus shrink. Big brands stay cautious: Nestlé says it is too early to specify changes, and Hershey expects deflation only deeper into 2026.
Companies are also locking in costs and redesigning products. Germany’s Lambertz bought expensive stocks lasting almost to mid‑2026, adding about €150 million ($176 million) in annual costs—roughly one‑fifth of last year’s revenue—then took lower volumes after passing costs on. Across the industry, recipe and size changes may stick: Milka bars are 10% lighter while prices rose about a quarter, and some UK bars can’t be labeled “chocolate.” Promotions may appear before real price cuts.
