莫迪在2024年受挫，其政党失去全国多数，被迫组成联合政府，随后约12个月政策推进乏力。部分人预期特朗普再次当选会强化其地位，结果相反：美国对大多数印度出口加征关税，累计税率达50%。在逆境与联盟约束下，莫迪转向更务实路线，减少针对穆斯林的挑衅性举措，转而聚焦经济改革，以维持较快增长。
政府预计截至明年3月的财年经济增长7.4%。印度经济规模可能很快超过日本，并有望在2028年前超越德国。制造业扶持十年初见成效，尽管遭遇美国关税，印度已组装全球约五分之一的iPhone。近月推出破产改革以缩短纠纷周期，简化全国增值税体系（此前爆米花可适用三种税率），并承诺削减滋生寻租的监管红线。11月劳动法修订减少企业“做小”的扭曲激励，电力领域拟引入私人资本以降低成本。自去年年中以来，印度已与英国、新西兰、阿曼达成三项贸易协定，正推进与欧盟的大型协议并启动与加拿大谈判，同时放宽保险与核电的外资准入。
对外关系亦改善。与中国在2020年边境冲突后冻结的关系开始解冻：莫迪去年七年来首次访华，10月恢复停飞约五年的直航，并逐步放松对中资与签证限制。风险在于，随着国内选举胜利与外部压力缓解，改革动力可能减弱。关税均值虽下降但仍高于2014年；农业、土地、教育等关键改革未解，环境与城市拥堵侵蚀收益，且最高法院近期资本利得税裁决扰动外资预期。尽管如此，在美国日益保护主义的背景下，印度的务实改革方向仍具价值。
Modi was humbled in 2024 when his party lost its national majority and had to govern in coalition, leaving policymaking listless for roughly the next 12 months. Some expected Donald Trump’s re-election to strengthen Modi’s hand, but the opposite occurred: the United States slapped tariffs on most Indian exports, now totalling 50%. Adversity and coalition constraints have pushed Modi toward pragmatism, with fewer provocative actions against Muslims and a renewed focus on economic reform to sustain fast growth.
The government expects GDP to expand by 7.4% in the fiscal year ending in March. India may soon be larger than Japan and could overtake Germany by 2028. A decade-long manufacturing push is showing results despite U.S. tariffs: India now assembles about one-fifth of the world’s iPhones. Recent moves include bankruptcy reforms to shorten disputes, simplification of the national VAT (once featuring three rates on popcorn), and pledges to cut rent-seeking red tape. November labour-law changes reduced incentives to stay small, while power-sector plans aim to attract private capital. Since mid-last year India has closed three trade deals—with Britain, New Zealand and Oman—may soon conclude a major EU pact, open talks with Canada, and ease foreign entry in insurance and nuclear power.
External ties are also improving. Relations with China, frozen after deadly 2020 border clashes, have thawed: Modi visited China last year for the first time in seven years, direct flights resumed in October after a roughly five-year pause, and curbs on Chinese investment and visas are easing. Risks remain that reform momentum fades as political pressure ebbs. Average tariffs, though drifting down, exceed 2014 levels; agriculture, land and education reforms are stalled; pollution and congestion sap gains; and a recent Supreme Court ruling unsettled capital-gains taxation. Even so, amid rising U.S. protectionism, India’s pragmatic reform turn merits credit.