资金流向直接反映了这种挫败感：全年约 1 万亿美元从主动型股票共同基金流出，已是连续第 11 年净流出；相对地，被动型股票 ETF 获得超过 6000 亿美元净流入。美国市场中，73% 的股票共同基金今年跑输基准（自 2007 年以来数据中属第四高），在 4 月“关税担忧”后的反弹中，AI 叙事进一步巩固了科技板块领跑，使偏离基准的代价依旧很高。
仍有少数主动策略靠“更不一样的风险”胜出：Dimensional 规模 140 亿美元的国际小盘价值组合今年回报略高于 50%，持有约 1800 只、几乎全在美国以外的股票；Allspring 的一只多元基金因押注芯片股回报约 20%。估值端也出现紧张信号：纳指 100 的市盈率超过 30 倍、市销率约 6 倍；AI 主题 ETF（IVES）在 2025 年膨胀到接近 10 亿美元。与此同时，VanEck 资源主题基金回报接近 40%，高盛量化模型每日覆盖约 1.5 万只股票并在部分国际与税管产品上实现约 40% 总回报；但在多年起伏后，投资者对波动与“付费做不同”的耐心明显变薄。
In 2025, US equity gains stayed highly concentrated in a small group led by seven mega-cap US tech stocks. The S&P 500 hit fresh records, yet keeping up often required owning little else. On many days in the first half, fewer than one in five stocks rose with the market, and the S&P 500 beat its equal-weight version, underscoring how narrow participation punished diversification.
Flows mirrored that frustration: about $1 trillion left active equity mutual funds for an 11th straight year of net outflows, while passive equity ETFs took in over $600 billion. In the US, 73% of equity mutual funds trailed their benchmarks (the fourth-worst share in data back to 2007), and after April’s tariff scare, AI enthusiasm reinforced tech leadership, keeping the cost of benchmark deviation high.
A few winners required very different bets: Dimensional’s $14 billion International Small Cap Value Portfolio returned just over 50% with roughly 1,800 mostly non-US holdings, and an Allspring multi-asset fund gained about 20% via chipmakers. Valuations looked stretched, with the Nasdaq 100 above 30x earnings and around 6x sales, while an AI-focused ETF grew to nearly $1 billion. Other concentrated themes also worked (VanEck’s resources fund near 40%), and Goldman cited a daily-ranked ~15,000-stock model delivering ~40% total returns across select funds, but investor tolerance for volatility and “paying to be different” thinned.
