此报道指出，自十月下旬以来 SoftBank 股价下跌 40%，Oracle 抹去自九月初以来的全部涨幅，两者均因与 OpenAI 的合作暴露在估值与资金压力之下。Stargate 项目规模达 5000 亿美元，SoftBank 还承诺在年末前向 Sam Altman 的风险协议投入 300 亿美元。Alphabet 推出 Gemini 3 后，OpenAI 的主导地位受到质疑，使合作方风险进一步放大。

OpenAI 估值按 5000 亿美元计算，SoftBank 持股约 11% 占其 NAV 的 20% 以上。其九月季度盈利中有 128 亿美元的公允价值增益来自该持股，若估值无法维持，该收益需被冲回。SoftBank 的非流动私募资产占 NAV 比例从年初的 21% 上升至 36%，同时为筹措 300 亿美元，SoftBank 已出售价值 58 亿美元的 Nvidia、92 亿美元的 T-Mobile，并扩大债务，但其股价仍以较 NAV 折价 32% 交易。

Oracle 面临更严峻的失配：OpenAI 预计到 2027 年收入仅 600 亿美元，却需承担 3000 亿美元的五年算力合同。Oracle 已为 Stargate 承诺逾 1000 亿美元资本支出，并在 2023 年 8 月拥有 1050 亿美元总债务。对比之下，Alphabet 约每年产生 1500 亿美元经营现金流、持有近 1000 亿美元现金且净债务为负，而 OpenAI、SoftBank、Oracle 均需依赖外部资本维持支出。资金实力的差距正在决定竞争结果。

This report outlines that since late October SoftBank’s shares have fallen 40% and Oracle has erased all gains made since early September, exposing both firms to valuation and funding risks tied to OpenAI. The 500-billion-dollar Stargate project and SoftBank’s 30-billion-dollar commitment to Sam Altman heighten their exposure, while Alphabet’s Gemini 3 has intensified doubts about OpenAI’s dominance.

At a 500-billion-dollar valuation, SoftBank’s roughly 11% OpenAI stake accounts for over 20% of its NAV. Its September-quarter earnings included a 12.8-billion-dollar fair-value gain that would reverse if OpenAI’s valuation slips. Private assets now make up 36% of SoftBank’s NAV, up from 21% at year-start. To raise 30 billion dollars, the firm sold 5.8 billion of Nvidia and 9.2 billion of T-Mobile while issuing new bonds, yet its shares trade at a 32% NAV discount.

Oracle faces a more severe mismatch: OpenAI expects only 60 billion dollars in 2027 revenue while obligated to a 300-billion-dollar compute contract. Oracle has pledged over 100 billion for Stargate and carried 105 billion in total debt as of August. In contrast, Alphabet generates about 150 billion in annual operating cash flow, holds nearly 100 billion in cash, and maintains negative net debt, while OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle rely on external capital. Balance-sheet strength is determining outcomes.