【老蛮频道】中国官方公布的“预期寿命”被描述为不具实证基础，因此文本将重点放在可量化的死亡年龄数据上。依据国家卫健委《卫生统计年鉴》提供的按五岁分组的死亡率，并与人口普查的分年龄人口配对，通过加权估算可得实际平均死亡年龄。2010年城市为69.7岁、农村为71.2岁；两地死亡率差异显著（城市每千人5.15，农村7.57），农村的更高平均死亡年龄被认为主要来自事故死亡未被完全纳入统计所造成的偏移。2010年全国真实平均死亡年龄略低于70岁。

2020年数据显示，死亡年龄约提高三岁：城市73.1岁、农村74.4岁，全国加权约为73岁，仍比当年公布的预期寿命77.9岁低近五岁。因公务人员寿命更长，普通人推算的平均死亡年龄约为70岁。性别差异显著：2020年城市男性平均死亡年龄71.0岁、女性75.5岁，相差4.5岁。扣除公务人员影响后，普通城市男性约69岁、女性约74岁。

基于此，若退休年龄延至男性65岁、女性60岁，则普通男性大约只能领取约4年退休金，而普通女性可领取约14年。文本推断官方延迟退休政策与实际平均死亡年龄之间存在紧张关系，并强调统计口径差异、事故死亡漏计及城乡差异对寿命估计的影响。

China’s officially published “life expectancy” is portrayed as lacking empirical grounding, so the text emphasizes measurable mortality-age data. Using age-specific mortality rates from the National Health Commission’s Statistical Yearbook and matching them with census age-group populations, weighted estimates yield actual mean death ages. In 2010, urban residents averaged 69.7 years and rural residents 71.2 years; mortality rates differed sharply (urban 5.15‰, rural 7.57‰). The higher rural mean age is attributed to accident deaths not fully captured in medical-institution reporting. The nationwide true average in 2010 is slightly below 70.

By 2020, death ages rose by about three years: urban 73.1, rural 74.4, and a national weighted figure near 73, still almost five years below the published 77.9. Because civil servants live longer, ordinary individuals are estimated to average roughly 70. Gender gaps are clear: in 2020 urban males averaged 71.0 and females 75.5, a 4.5-year gap. Excluding civil-service effects, ordinary urban males average about 69 and females about 74.

Under retirement ages of 65 for men and 60 for women, ordinary men would receive roughly four years of benefits, and ordinary women about fourteen. The text links delayed retirement to these mortality patterns and highlights how statistical-coverage differences, accident undercounting, and urban-rural disparities shape estimated lifespans.