Burry 在 2025 年 11 月强化对 Nvidia 的批评,重点指向股票为基础的报酬稀释效应与回购行为,同时质疑 AI 交易的循环性与收入确认结构。Nvidia 于周末向华尔街分析师发送备忘录反驳相关观点。Nvidia 股价当周上涨 2.1%,但仍低于 10 月下旬峰值约 12%。
在 Burry 看来,Nvidia 与多家 AI 提供者之间的“循环”协议构成系统性风险,其中包括与 OpenAI 的计划性协议:Nvidia 拟投入高达 1000 亿美元(约 USD 100B),而 OpenAI 将以数百万颗 Nvidia 芯片建设数据中心。这类结构被比拟为部分 dot-com 时代模式,可能放大市场估值并强化公司间的相依性。
市场焦点同时集中在 GPU 折旧速度及 AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性。Huang 在公布季度业绩时否认泡沫论,指称业务动能仍强,并预计 1 月季度营收约 650 亿美元(较分析师预测高出约 30 亿美元),同时指出未来数季可能出现的 0.5 兆美元规模增量或将超出原估。整体讨论围绕 AI 资本循环的扩张速度与其未证实的长期需求假设。
In late November 2025, Burry escalated his criticism of Nvidia, emphasizing dilution from stock-based compensation, buybacks, and concerns over AI deal circularity and revenue recognition. Nvidia issued a memo to analysts refuting these claims. Its shares rose 2.1% that Monday but remained about 12% below a late-October peak.
Burry highlighted systemic risks in “circular” agreements between Nvidia and AI providers, including a planned structure with OpenAI in which Nvidia may invest up to USD 100B while OpenAI builds data centers using millions of Nvidia chips. These arrangements echo certain dot-com-era models and may inflate valuations and interdependence across firms.
Market scrutiny also targets GPU depreciation rates and the durability of AI-infrastructure spending. Huang rejected bubble concerns during earnings, projecting January-quarter revenue of roughly USD 65B, about USD 3B above forecasts, and suggesting an expected USD 0.5T surge in coming quarters could exceed earlier estimates. Overall debate centers on the expansion pace of AI capital cycles and unproven long-term demand assumptions.