乌克兰战争的潜在破局点可能在 2026 年到来，因为俄罗斯在战场与经济端的压力正在量化显现：其“绞肉机式”攻势今年可能平均每天造成约 1,000 人伤亡；GDP 增速跌至不足 1%，军费高企与油价偏低压缩财政；美国对 Rosneft 与 Lukoil 的新制裁进一步削弱能源收入；俄央行已开始出售黄金支撑战事。但若缺乏追加动员，普京明年将难以再发动大规模攻势。与此同时，乌克兰深入俄本土的打击削弱能源出口，形成额外压力。若西方行动同步推进，可加速俄方危机，同时延缓乌克兰自身的兵源与财政崩溃点。
有效方案需同时强化三条线：美国应进一步压缩俄能源收入，尤其针对中国的石油采购；扩大对中俄战略贸易的制裁以阻断双重用途物资；并提供更具成本效益的远程武器与情报支援，提升乌克兰对俄纵深打击力度。欧盟应批准冻结俄罗斯资产的动用机制，并更快终止仍在填补俄财政缺口的能源进口。乌克兰必须解决兵力短缺，通过扩大征兵维持前线厚度。上述措施旨在改变普京的谈判计算，使其不再认为时间站在俄方一边。
特朗普当前的“和平方案”因回避普京持续肢解乌克兰的战略目标而必然失败。若要形成可行方案，必须从构建杠杆入手，而非重复无效外交试探。若美国、欧盟与乌克兰无法在 2026 年前构筑压力峰值，则战争可能进入对双方皆不可持续的阶段，在乌克兰国内政治恶化、腐败丑闻与战线恶化叠加下，机会窗口可能关闭。
Real leverage over the Ukraine war may materialize in 2026 because Russia’s military and economic strain is quantifiably worsening: Russian offensives may have suffered up to 1,000 casualties per day this year; GDP growth is under 1% due to extreme military spending and weak oil prices; new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are tightening revenue; and the central bank has begun selling gold to finance the war. Without another mobilization, Putin will struggle to mount sustained offensives next year. Ukrainian strikes into Russia are depressing energy exports. If Western action converges, Russia’s crisis point can be accelerated while Ukraine’s own manpower and fiscal breaking point is delayed.
A functional strategy requires three lines of effort: the US must further choke Russian energy revenue, particularly by targeting Chinese oil purchases; expand sanctions against Sino-Russian strategic trade supplying dual-use inputs; and provide cost-effective long-range strike systems plus intelligence to intensify Ukraine’s disruption of the Russian war economy. The EU must approve the frozen-asset transfer mechanism and more decisively end energy imports that continue filling Moscow’s coffers. Ukraine must address its manpower deficit by expanding conscription to sustain front-line density. These measures aim to alter Putin’s negotiation posture by convincing him that time is no longer on Russia’s side.
Trump’s current peace plan fails because it ignores Putin’s core objective of breaking Ukraine. A viable approach requires building leverage, not pursuing futile diplomatic gambits. If the US, EU and Ukraine fail to force a climax in Russia’s war crisis by 2026, the conflict may reach an unsustainable phase for both sides, with Ukraine’s political toxicity, corruption scandals and deteriorating front lines closing the window for a tolerable settlement.