法国干邑行业正经历自上世纪90年代末以来首次协调性减产，生产商开始拔除葡萄藤以应对需求骤降。根据行业组织BNIC数据，2025年干邑出货量降至1.41亿瓶，为2009年以来最低水平。IWSR预测，至2029年全球消费量将以每年约2%的速度持续下滑。小型酒庄Hine已裁员超过三分之一，并计划拔除其129公顷葡萄园中约10%的面积，显示行业调整的深度。

需求疲软叠加成本压力和贸易摩擦，对一个年产值约22亿欧元的产业构成系统性冲击。美国和中国合计占干邑消费量的一半以上，而两国关税上升显著压制需求。中国在2024年对进口白兰地征收高额关税后，2025年进口量同比下降近40%，至2200万升。与此同时，行业库存已从通常可覆盖7年需求，升至创纪录的11年，存储成本与资本占用显著上升。

结构性调整正在加速。BNIC已要求生产商将每公顷生命之水产量削减至四年前的一半，并计划将种植面积缩减13%。LVMH饮品业务利润占比已从2015年的16%降至2024年上半年的不足6%，而集团整体利润更多来自时装与皮具。部分生产商已开始讨论销毁库存这一极端方案，尽管干邑通常随时间升值。行业未来取决于减产执行、贸易缓和及需求恢复的速度。

The Cognac industry in France is undergoing its first coordinated production cut since the late 1990s, with producers uprooting vines to respond to collapsing demand. According to industry group BNIC, shipments in 2025 fell to 141 million bottles, the lowest level since 2009. IWSR forecasts that global consumption will continue to decline at about 2% per year through 2029. Small producer Hine has laid off more than one-third of its workforce and plans to remove about 10% of its 129 hectares of vineyards, underscoring the depth of the adjustment.

Weak demand combined with cost pressures and trade frictions is hitting an industry worth about €2.2 billion annually. The US and China together account for more than half of Cognac consumption, and rising tariffs have sharply curtailed sales. After China imposed heavy duties on brandy in 2024, imports fell nearly 40% in 2025 to 22 million liters. At the same time, inventories have risen from the usual seven years of demand coverage to a record 11 years, increasing storage costs and capital strain.

Structural retrenchment is accelerating. BNIC has ordered producers to cut eau-de-vie output per hectare to half of levels from four years earlier and aims to reduce vineyard acreage by 13%. LVMH’s drinks division contribution to operating profit fell from 16% in 2015 to under 6% in the first half of 2024, while group profits increasingly rely on fashion and leather goods. Some producers are now considering destroying inventory, an extreme step despite Cognac’s tendency to gain value with age. The industry’s outlook hinges on production cuts, trade relief, and the pace of demand recovery.