风险升高有明确数据支撑：4至10月（不含北海道）全国通报熊出没36,814起；环境省统计4至11月熊伤人230人，超过2023财年的219人纪录；4月至11月20日死亡13人亦创新高。4至10月捕获9,867头为最高，多数被扑杀。东京都内缘4至10月也有142起目击，甚至距市中心约50公里处仍见熊。
成因被指向橡实歉收与人口外流造成的「反向入侵」：汤泽人口自1950年接近8万已减半；秋田市人口2005年逾33万、近年跌破30万。企业端需求上升：饭店改手动门、挂辣椒与风铃，10—11月营收年减约10%；居家卖场的防熊商品自6月起较去年暴增「数百％」。防护公司成立专责团队，曾有单一企业采购数百瓶喷雾；连锁超商FamilyMart与Lawson也在10—11月向北日本门市配发。另一方面猎人短缺加剧：有人称当地猎人从近100人降至不到10人，多为70多岁。
Bear intrusions and attacks in Japan are hitting record levels, pushing small businesses to protect staff and customers. At a 200‑plus‑year ryokan in Yuzawa, Akita, the owner sets off firecrackers almost daily; each costs about 400 yen (roughly $2.50). Even without incidents, the inn saw around 20 cancellations after October and now explicitly accepts cancellations driven by bear anxiety.
Official figures show the scale of the shift. From April to October (excluding Hokkaido), Japan logged 36,814 bear sightings. From April to November, 230 people were injured, topping the prior record of 219 in fiscal 2023; deaths reached a record 13 between April and Nov. 20. Captures also surged: 9,867 bears were taken April–October, with most killed. Tokyo prefecture recorded 142 sightings in the same period, including one about 50 km from central Tokyo.
Demand for deterrents is rising amid poor acorn harvests and rural depopulation that reduces human “buffer zones.” Yuzawa’s population has halved since nearly 80,000 in 1950; Akita city fell from over 330,000 in 2005 to below 300,000 recently. A local hotel reported roughly a 10% year‑on‑year sales drop in October–November, while a home-goods chain saw “hundreds of percent” growth in bear-safety items since June. Orders can reach hundreds of sprays per company, prompting FamilyMart and Lawson to distribute repellent in northern Japan in October–November, even as hunters dwindle from nearly 100 to under 10 in some areas.
