川普关税与中国产能过剩，使被美国市场挤出的中国商品以低价涌入欧洲与东南亚，迫使各国仿效以关税自保。墨西哥计划于2026年1月把约1,400项、以中国货为主的品项关税调高至最高50%。越南今年截至11月自中国进口增加23%，并自7月起上调对中国钢材关税；欧洲也因中国电动车激增而酝酿更强硬措施。

中国1—11月对美出口年减19%，但对欧盟与东协分别年增8%与14%，2025年贸易顺差可望首度超过1兆美元。以低价抢市下，对欧乘用车出口单价两年跌9%，出口量却增50%；钢铁、电子零件、太阳能等价格下滑，使出口价格整体降17%。美国智库估算中国工业补贴约占GDP的5%，为美国或日本的10倍。

中国新能源车产能估36,000,000辆、约为国内需求2倍；中国占全球制造30%，但消费仅占13%，且青年失业率仍约17%，出口压力难减。美国货物贸易逆差将连续第5年超过1兆美元；对墨西哥逆差增17%、对越南增46%，显示中国货透过第三国入美。美国个人消费约占全球30%而制造仅约15%，2025财年赤字达1.8兆美元、公共持有国债升至29兆美元；在2025年全球贸易量仅约2%增长下，失衡可能加剧经济与政治风险。

Trump’s tariffs and China’s overproduction are pushing Chinese goods shut out of the U.S. into Europe and Southeast Asia at low prices, prompting copycat defenses. Mexico plans in January 2026 to raise tariffs on about 1,400 items—mainly Chinese—to as high as 50%. Vietnam, where imports of Chinese goods rose 23% through November, has raised tariffs on Chinese steel since July. Europe is also signaling possible tariffs amid a surge of Chinese EVs.

In Jan–Nov, China’s exports to the U.S. fell 19% year on year, while exports to the EU and ASEAN rose 8% and 14%, putting its 2025 trade surplus on track to top $1 trillion for the first time. Price-led competition is visible: unit prices of China-made passenger cars exported to the EU fell 9% over two years as volumes rose 50%, and overall export prices fell 17%. A U.S. think tank estimates industrial subsidies at 5% of GDP—10x the U.S. or Japan ratio.

China’s new-energy vehicle capacity is estimated at 36 million, about twice domestic demand; it produces 30% of global manufacturing but accounts for only 13% of global consumption, with youth unemployment around 17%. The U.S. goods trade deficit is set to exceed $1 trillion for a fifth straight year; deficits with Mexico and Vietnam rose 17% and 46%, suggesting Chinese goods rerouted via third countries. With world trade volume growing around 2% in 2025, the U.S. runs “twin deficits”: a $1.8 trillion FY2025 budget deficit and $29 trillion public debt, raising risks of economic and political backlash.