特朗普政府一周内先是扬言即将对伊朗民用能源设施实施惩罚性打击，随后又在出现秘密和谈线索后叫停，并已准备调动美国82空降师一部分兵力进驻，这显示其军事路线出现明显摇摆。伊朗虽然付出“多名”高层和数百名平民生命、军用防空与海军及导弹发射设施遭重创，但政权并未失稳，反而在国内维持高压控制。

伊朗国内权力结构中，圣城圣战者（革命卫队）掌握主导权，其约400公斤高浓缩铀库存据称仍在废墟中保存，且伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的实际扼制可影响全球约五分之一的油气供应。其非对称作战（导弹、廉价无人机和可能的布雷）使超级大国难以轻易解除其在海峡上的控制。

代理人实力虽下降，伊朗仍在地区扩展议程：胡塞暂缓打击红海油轮，使沙特石油经海岸外运并使油价在近几日仍徘徊在每桶100美元附近；伊拉克亲伊朗什叶派武装转向反对库尔德人和美国，黎巴嫩真主党在以军打击下可能重获“抵抗组织”民意。海湾盟友在防空体系和拦截火箭仍不完备、经济对区域能源威胁高度依赖的情况下，更多诉诸美国，阿联酋把此称作“经济恐怖主义”，沙特则据报要求部署美军地面部队。

The Trump administration shifted in a single week from threats of imminent punitive attacks on Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure to pausing after reports of secret talks, while preparing to move part of the U.S. 82nd Airborne into the area. Iran has suffered deaths among leaders and hundreds of civilians, with severe damage to its air defense, navy, and missile launchers, yet the regime remained intact and domestic control stayed tight.

Inside Iran, the Revolutionary Guards retained command, around 400 kg of highly enriched uranium is still believed to remain intact, and Tehran’s hold over the Strait of Hormuz still covers roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Through asymmetric tools—missiles, low-cost drones, and potential mining—this control has proven difficult for the superpower to break.

Despite weakened proxies, Iran still shapes regional dynamics: Houthi restraint in the Red Sea has allowed Saudi crude to route around Hormuz and keep prices near about US$100 a barrel, while allies in Iraq and Lebanon and Gulf partners are recalibrating around Iranian leverage. Lacking clear strategic gains in the U.S. and Israeli campaigns, Trump now faces a high-risk escalation versus negotiated settlement choice, with Iran likely to insist on a full ceasefire and tougher terms because the war has strengthened hardliners and improved Tehran’s bargaining position relative to the prewar baseline.

Source: Advantage Ira

Subtitle: A month of bombing has achieved nothing. Will Donald Trump escalate, or talk?

Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 05:35 上午