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沙特阿拉伯通过绕过霍尔木兹海峡的应急方案,已将石油出口恢复至正常水平的一半以上,显示出显著的恢复能力。在海峡几乎关闭的情况下,沙特利用一条长达1200公里(746英里)的管道将原油转运至红海延布港,同时调集大量油轮形成运输能力。过去5天内,延布港出口平均达到419万桶/日,相比战前全国约700万桶/日的出口规模已占约60%,且远高于此前约140万桶/日的水平,增幅接近3倍。

全球约20%的石油通常经由霍尔木兹海峡运输,其受阻导致区域产油国被迫减产并面临储存压力。国际能源署将此次冲突描述为石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断。在替代路径方面,沙特具备最强韧性,而阿联酋虽拥有通往阿曼湾的管道,但其富查伊拉港因无人机袭击多次中断装载,显示替代路线的脆弱性与不稳定性。

运输端数据显示明显瓶颈与扩张并存。至少32艘超大型油轮与苏伊士型油轮在延布附近等待装载,形成短期积压。单日最高装载量达到465万桶,并已出现3次,但整体日度数据波动较大。沙特正推动红海港口对外供货并向长期客户提供改道选项,显示其在危机中通过基础设施与物流重构维持出口能力,同时在全球供应收缩背景下占据更高市场份额。

Saudi Arabia has restored more than half of its normal oil exports through a Hormuz bypass strategy, demonstrating significant resilience. With the strait nearly closed, the kingdom is rerouting crude via a 1,200 km (746 mile) pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu while assembling a large tanker fleet. Over the past 5 days, exports from Yanbu averaged 4.19 million barrels per day, representing about 60% of the pre-war total of roughly 7 million barrels per day and nearly triple the previous Yanbu flow of about 1.4 million barrels per day.

Roughly 20% of global oil normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, and its disruption has forced regional producers to cut output as storage fills. The International Energy Agency has characterized the conflict as the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Among producers, Saudi Arabia holds the most robust alternative route, while the UAE’s pipeline to the Gulf of Oman remains vulnerable, with the Fujairah port experiencing repeated loading suspensions due to drone attacks, highlighting instability in alternative logistics.

Shipping data indicates simultaneous expansion and congestion. At least 32 VLCC and suezmax tankers are waiting near Yanbu to load cargo, creating short-term bottlenecks. Peak daily loadings reached 4.65 million barrels on three occasions, though daily volumes remain volatile. Saudi Arabia is increasing Red Sea export capacity and offering long-term clients rerouted supply options, enabling it to sustain export volumes and capture greater market share amid global supply contraction.

2026-03-19 (Thursday) · f8d72a54f8fba68f6ff97efbbffc4c7927791753

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