Alphabet 的 TPU 推动股价在第四季度上涨 30%，市场预期其芯片业务外部销售可形成接近 9,000 亿美元规模。若实现对 AI 市场 20% 份额的渗透，该业务可能超过 Google Cloud。公司在十月宣布向 Anthropic 供应数百亿美元芯片并获得逾 6% 两日涨幅，同时 Meta 讨论投入数十亿美元获取 TPU 访问权，均强化市场对 ASIC 芯片低成本与扩展性的预期。

研究机构预估 2027 年将购买约 500 万颗 TPU，较先前预估上调约 67%，2028 年达到 700 万颗，上调约 120%。Morgan Stanley 指出每销售 50 万颗给第三方即可为 Alphabet 2027 年收入增加约 130 亿美元，占预计 4,470 亿美元的近 3%，并贡献约 0.40 美元每股盈余。共识对 2027 年营收预期三个月内上升逾 6%，反映市场对 TPU 销售策略萌芽的判断。

尽管股价接近预估盈余的约 27 倍、为 2021 年以来高位，但仍低于 Apple、Microsoft 与 Broadcom。部分基金经理利用涨幅减持，但仍认为 AI 布局、TPU 与 Gemini 模型等多层面能力形成持续优势。若外部销售未达预期，估值可能受压，但目前迹象显示 Alphabet 在 AI 堆栈各层保持领先，并具备 TPU 成为新收入驱动项的可信路径。

Alphabet’s TPUs drove a 30% fourth-quarter rally, with expectations that external chip sales could form a business approaching USD 900 billion. A 20% share of the AI market would place the segment above Google Cloud. The October announcement to supply tens of billions of dollars in chips to Anthropic produced a two-day gain of more than 6%, and Meta’s discussions to spend billions for TPU access reinforced expectations for lower-cost ASIC scalability versus Nvidia.

Analysts estimate about five million TPUs will be purchased in 2027, roughly 67% above prior forecasts, rising to seven million in 2028, about 120% higher. Morgan Stanley indicates every 500,000 units sold to third-party data centers could add about USD 13 billion to 2027 revenue—nearly 3% of the projected USD 447 billion—and about USD 0.40 in EPS. Consensus expectations for 2027 revenue have risen more than 6% over three months, signaling recognition of an emerging TPU sales strategy.

Shares trade near 27× estimated earnings, the highest since 2021 yet below Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom. Some investors trimmed positions after the rally but maintain that TPU strength, the Gemini model, and multilayer AI capabilities provide durable advantage. Failure to materialize external sales could pressure valuation, but current evidence indicates Alphabet holds leadership across the AI stack and a credible path for TPUs to become a new revenue driver.